Ukrainian Front: Is the West inclining Russia to an “agreement” or is it just leading us by the nose?
By INTEL-DROP May 27, 2023
Our military is learning from failures, but it’s too early to rush to trumpet the coming victory
Our military is learning from failures, but it’s too early to rush to trumpet the coming victory
By SvPressa - Evgeny Bersenev
Now the situation in the Ukrainian conflict is developing more and more favorably for Russia, according to American military expert Daniel Davis in an article for 19FortyFive.
In his opinion, the turning point that occurred during the military confrontation is an “objective reality.” Davis is convinced that “the United States must avoid the temptation to ‘doubling down’ by maintaining a losing scenario.” He states that over the past 15 months, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have suffered four major defeats – in the battles for Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Soledar, and Artemovsk.
By the way, the battle for Artyomovsk turned out to be “the loss of a staggering number of troops” for the Ukrainian side, writes the author of 19FortyFive. He believes that the decision taken at the time by the Ukrainian command to defend the city to the end “may have serious consequences for the rest” of the conflict.
At the same time, Davies notes, the West misperceived Russia’s potential during the conflict. “Practically from the first days … among Western analysts, the theme has been widespread that the Russian armed forces are significantly inferior in efficiency, and the Ukrainian army is constantly exceeding expectations. However, few seem to have noticed that the pendulum on the battlefield has shifted,” writes Davis.
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The author of the publication notes that “the latest data indicate that the Russian side has made tactical and operational improvements that have an impact on the situation on the ground.”
He is convinced that “Russia is learning from its many tactical mistakes, and the available evidence suggests that it is improving tactically while expanding its industrial potential.”
At the same time, for Kyiv, a much greater loss than the lack of ammunition and equipment “is the number of lost trained and experienced personnel.” “Many of these skilled military personnel and leaders simply cannot be replaced for several months,” the article says.
Daniel Davis recalled that “Russian history is replete with examples of the unsuccessful start of wars, heavy losses, and then recovery for the subsequent turning point.”
The expert notes that at present, the Ukrainian military and political leadership is faced with a difficult choice: to collect all available offensive capabilities and deliver a decisive blow, or to maintain reserves. Both options seem, in his opinion, rather risky, but neither of them leads Ukraine to victory.
According to military expert Viktor Litovkin, our side should not yet take the conclusions of the American analyst to heart.
“I think Davis was a bit hasty. We do not yet know the final boundaries of the special military operation. Nobody told us, nobody told us what should be at the end. Yes, our military has achieved great success – they liberated Artemovsk and laid the foundations for the complete liberation of the Donetsk People’s Republic, which is good news.
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However, the tasks that the President of Russia set on February 24, 2022, at the beginning of the NWO, have not yet been achieved. The security of the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, and now also the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, has not been ensured. We have not denazified, and we have not demilitarized Ukraine. Therefore, I would not be in a hurry to say that a fracture has occurred.
“SP”: In this material, the American expert has in mind the course of hostilities. He points out that the Russian military and officers began to learn from their failures and even correct them.
Of course, we have learned some lessons from our mistakes. But we must not forget that in a military conflict, the results are summed up after its end, and not during it. Still, a lot can change in the course of hostilities. Therefore, it is too early to say that we are no different. Wait and see.
“SP”: Perhaps the appearance of such publications is symptomatic and indicates that the West can no longer help Kyiv, as before.
Still, the West can do a lot. Let’s be sober people. The West has set itself the task not of achieving a victory for Ukraine over Russia, but of the collapse of our country. Therefore, he will do everything to achieve this. And it has almost endless potential. We will withstand this confrontation, we will be able to survive – then we will say that we have achieved something. And the point here, as you understand, is not only in Ukraine.
According to military expert, Doctor of Political Sciences Mikhail Alexandrov, the conclusion of the American analyst is somewhat surprising.
– This is not a very smart conclusion about some kind of turning point. In fact, it was difficult to doubt the victory of Russia. However, the West did everything to drag out the conflict and increase, as they said, the price for the Russian side for this military operation. When the situation began to change and it was already about the use of nuclear weapons, they came to a certain confusion. It is necessary to somehow get out, to say something – these are their experts and start talking about the fracture that has occurred.
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“SP”: That is, the appearance of this publication can be considered indicative.
– Here it cannot be ruled out that they may be trying to mislead us so that we relax and begin to hope for some kind of “agreement”. It’s no secret that we have a fifth column that wants to pull off some kind of “agreement”. And this public is just waiting to tell the leadership of the country: you see, they are talking about the changed situation there. Perhaps now is the time for negotiations, these people say. So, such stuffing may be intended to confuse us.
It is possible that this is why Peskov recently said that there can be no freezing of the conflict. And Medvedev said that the solution could only be the elimination of the current regime in Kyiv. Putin has not yet spoken out on this subject, although there are those who wish to do so next to him – oil and gas traders. Representatives of energy exporters seeking to return everything to its former state. So the fifth column is strong and we have to keep our eyes open.
“SP”: Are there any signs that our military took into account the mistakes and shortcomings of the initial stage of the NWO?
— I’m not sure that all this is fully taken into account. Still, there are people in the Ministry of Defense for whom hostilities, let’s replace an undesirable word, are not a mother’s family, but a misfortune that has fallen. It’s more about organizing parades, exhibitions, and other events. And the recent conflict with Prigogine clearly showed a lot. Prigozhin demands that we advance, there are results, but it seems that he is facing a brake. Therefore, in the top leadership, there should be people who are stubborn, militant, and ready to fight to the fullest – then there will be results.
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