US UNDER TRUMP-2 PRIMARY DRIVER OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY

By Grok-T.Chr.-Human Synthesis-28 January 2026

The Trump administration has aggressively pursued an "America First" reset, making the U.S. the single largest source of geopolitical risk according to multiple analyses (e.g., Eurasia Group). Key moves in January 2026 include:

• Massive cuts to foreign aid (USAID programs slashed by up to 80% from prior levels, with estimates of hundreds of thousands of attributable deaths already reported).
• Withdrawal from numerous UN bodies and treaties (e.g., WHO earlier, plus IPCC, UNFCCC, UN Population Fund, UN Trade and Development, and several regional commissions in January).
• Dramatic military intervention in Venezuela: U.S. airstrikes and special forces operations led to the capture/arrest of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on January 3, followed by installation of an interim government. This has caused global shockwaves, oil market uncertainty, and condemnation from many quarters (while some Latin American actors quietly welcomed it).
• Renewed threats toward Greenland (meetings with Danish/Greenlandic leaders, annexation rhetoric resurfacing).
• Heavy domestic focus on immigration enforcement (e.g., large-scale ICE deployments amid protests) and tariff threats that continue to pressure allies and adversaries alike.

This approach has accelerated deglobalization trends, pushed other powers toward alternative partnerships, and weakened traditional U.S. alliances.Ukraine-Russia War – Stalemate with Diplomatic Maneuvering. The conflict remains active but with slowed Russian advances in early January due to winter conditions. Russian forces continue heavy glide-bomb and drone barrages (over 1,000 guided bombs and ~1,000 drones in one recent week alone), focusing on eastern fronts like Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka areas. Ukraine conducts long-range strikes and holds some gains near Kupyansk/Pokrovsk.Diplomatic efforts center on U.S.-led proposals (including reworked peace plans), but Russia rejects key elements like security guarantees for Ukraine or troop deployments. Zelenskyy pushes for temporary ceasefires to enable elections; Kremlin insists on maximalist demands. No breakthrough yet—war remains grinding and attritional.

srael-Gaza / Hamas Conflict – Fragile Ceasefire PhaseA ceasefire (part of a U.S.-broached "Comprehensive Plan") has held since late 2025 / early 2026, with phased hostage/prisoner releases (dozens of living and deceased Israeli captives returned, hundreds of Palestinians released). Humanitarian conditions improved marginally but remain catastrophic (widespread destruction, displacement).Key recent developments:

• Israel preparing to reopen the Rafah crossing (Egypt border) after locating remains of the last captive.
• Discussions in Cairo on Phase 2: potential Hamas disarmament, fuller Israeli withdrawal, aid surge.
• Tensions persist—Israel banned over 30 aid organizations in early January; Hamas retains control over parts of Gaza.

Risk of renewed fighting is high if Phase 2 stalls.Other Major Flashpoints & Trends

• Geoeconomic confrontation (tariffs, sanctions, trade weaponization) now ranks as the #1 global risk per World Economic Forum—above armed conflict—driven by U.S. policies and ripple effects.
• India-EU trade deal finalized January 27 after 20+ years, partly as a hedge against U.S. tariffs.
• Iran – Nationwide anti-regime protests met with deadly crackdowns (thousands killed); regime under severe pressure from drought, sanctions, and internal unrest.
• Europe – Rising populism/far-right momentum ahead of elections (Denmark, Hungary, Slovenia, Sweden); EU integration stalled; concerns over Russian influence (e.g., Bulgaria euro adoption tensions).
• Asia – U.S.-China relations in cautious truce mode (tariff pause, planned reciprocal visits), but structural frictions (tech, Taiwan) unresolved. China bans Taiwanese officials; no imminent Taiwan invasion signal.
• Multilateral retreat – U.S. exits signal broader weakening of global institutions; New START Treaty expiration looms in February.

Overall, 2026 feels like a year of spheres of influence reassertion, economic coercion over military conquest (though wars persist), and declining faith in shared rules. The U.S. is actively reshaping the order—whether toward greater stability or chaos remains the central question.If you'd like deeper detail on any region, conflict, or specific country, just say the word!

Situation in my homeland Norway? Your homeland, remains one of the most stable and prosperous countries in the world as of late January 2026, but it's feeling real pressure from the chaotic global environment—especially the unpredictable U.S. under Trump 2.0, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and Arctic tensions. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre (Labour Party, in a centre-left coalition with the Centre Party) is still in power, though the government faces declining poll numbers ahead of the 2025 election aftermath and the next parliamentary term. Public trust in institutions stays high, but there's growing anxiety about security and international reliability. Security & Defense – Top Priority - Norway is ramping up defense spending significantly amid fears of Russian aggression in the Arctic and questions about U.S. NATO commitment. Key points:

• Heavy focus on NATO's northern flank: Joint exercises like Cold Response 2026 are underway, with increased British Royal Marines presence for year-round operations in northern Norway.
• Continued military aid to Ukraine (e.g., recent deliveries of air defense missiles for NASAMS systems).
• PM Støre addressed public concerns directly in his New Year's speech, responding to schoolkids asking if war could come to Norway—he emphasized resilience but acknowledged the world has become "more serious."
• Russia remains seen as the biggest threat, especially in the High North.

This ties into broader European worries about weakened transatlantic ties.U.S.-Norway Tensions – A Major Headache. The biggest bilateral drama right now revolves around Donald Trump's fixation on Greenland (part of Denmark's kingdom). Trump has renewed demands for U.S. control/annexation, threatened tariffs on Norway (and other NATO allies with personnel in Greenland), and even sent pointed texts to Støre complaining about the Nobel Peace Prize (blaming it for his shift away from "pure peace").

• Norway has firmly backed Denmark: Støre publicly stated Greenland's future is for Danes and Greenlanders to decide, calling out potential NATO violations.
• A recent U.S. tariff threat on Norwegian goods was ultimately not imposed (after central bank rate decisions), but it caused temporary uncertainty.
• Norway criticized Trump's Venezuela intervention as lacking "democratic legitimacy" and violating rule of law.

This has shaken faith in the U.S. among Norwegians, with polls showing declining trust in Washington.Domestic Politics & Economy

• The Labour-Centre government is struggling in polls—critics say it's out of touch (especially the Centre Party's EU skepticism), and opposition (led by Conservatives/Erna Solberg) gained ground in recent locals.
• Economic resilience is strong: The $2.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund (Government Pension Fund Global) is being urged to prepare better for geopolitical risks (e.g., past Gaza-related controversies).
• Norges Bank kept interest rates steady in January, expecting 1-2 cuts later in 2026 despite global uncertainty.
• Everyday changes: New Oslo toll rates, stricter winter tire enforcement, slight EV incentive reductions (though Norway still leads in electric cars), and proposals to cut refugee welfare benefits (replacing them with a lower "integration allowance" tied to work/participation—controversial, with child rights concerns).

Other Notes

• Foreign policy conferences (e.g., NUPI event on Jan 27) highlight 2026 as a "decisive year" for European security, Ukraine's endgame, and rules-based order erosion.
• Norway continues strong multilateral engagement (e.g., new UNRWA funding, Nordic-Baltic statements condemning Russia).
• Weather-wise: A cold snap (Bergen potentially coldest January in years), but nothing crisis-level.

Overall, Norway is safe, wealthy, and democratic—but the government is navigating a stormier world than in decades, with heavy emphasis on defense alliances, energy security (as Europe's key gas supplier post-Russia shift), and hedging against unreliable great powers. It's not dramatic like some hotspots, but the sense of vulnerability is real and widely discussed.If you want details on a specific aspect (e.g., Arctic military buildup, economy/oil fund, or refugee policy debate), just let me know!

Current Political Situation in Brazil (as of January 2026)

Brazil's political landscape in early 2026 is marked by preparations for the upcoming general elections on October 4, 2026, where President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking a fourth term amid a competitive and polarized environment.americasquarterly.org +1The country continues to grapple with the aftermath of the 2023 Brasília riots, with ongoing emphasis on defending democratic institutions against threats from far-right elements.braziloffice.orgGlobal risks, including economic uncertainties and international relations, are expected to influence the electoral dynamics, potentially tilting the balance in this decisive vote.eurasiagroup.netKey Recent Developments:

• Lula's Administration and Legal Actions: On January 8, 2026, President Lula vetoed a congressional bill that would have reduced the prison sentence of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, coinciding with the third anniversary of the 2023 riots where Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings.theguardian.com +1This move underscores ongoing tensions between Lula's left-leaning Workers' Party (PT) and right-wing opposition. Bolsonaro remains a polarizing figure, with narratives around his legal troubles highlighting the role of Brazil's high court in upholding democracy, though some analysts note that institutional strength alone isn't sufficient to safeguard it.theconversation.com
• Protests and Mobilization: Demonstrations occurred across Brazil on January 5, 2026, prompting alerts from the U.S. Embassy about potential unrest.br.usembassy.govRight-wing groups continue to organize, with recent events in Brasília on January 25 drawing thousands, including calls from figures like Flávio Bolsonaro for further acts.@0x_salomeThese reflect fragmentation within the right, with absences of key leaders like Michelle Bolsonaro signaling internal shifts.@HardNewsBR
• Economic and International Ties: Lula's government is advancing trade deals, with the EU-Mercosul agreement set to enter provisional effect in March 2026, despite European tensions.thegamblest.comDomestically, issues like financial scandals (e.g., the Banco Master collapse involving alleged R$40 billion fraud) and pension system concerns are eroding support in regions like the Northeast, potentially impacting Lula's re-election chances amid high rejection rates in polls.@0x_salomeTech policy is also a focus, with Brazil navigating U.S. relations under Lula.techpolicy.press
• Broader Context: Reflections on COP30 (hosted in Brazil in late 2025) emphasize climate urgency and global cooperation, but political volatility persists, including risks of institutional imbalance in Senate elections and regional power shifts in neighboring Venezuela.unfccc.int +1Overall, the priority remains stabilizing democracy in a divided society.braziloffice.org

Regarding the South American Conference

Your mention of Brazil "at the moment taking part in South American conference" could refer to ongoing events. As of January 28, 2026, Brazil is involved in the CRU Fertilizer Latino Americano 2026 Conference & Exhibition in Miami (January 26–28), which focuses on Latin American agriculture and industry with participants from across the region.events.crugroup.com

This isn't strictly political but has economic implications for South American trade. No major purely political South American summit (e.g., Mercosul or CELAC) appears to be happening exactly now, based on current reports—though Brazil's recent EU-Mercosul progress ties into broader regional diplomacy.thegamblest.com

If you meant a specific event like COP30 (which concluded in 2025), or something else, feel free to clarify for more details.As a pensioner in Brazil, you might be interested in how these dynamics affect daily life, such as potential impacts on pensions or stability—recent INSS scandals have raised concerns about social security reliability.@0x_salomeThe situation is fluid, with elections looming as a pivotal moment.

Is Trump of the opinion that BRICS can be a treath to the dollar?

Yes, Donald Trump views BRICS as a threat to the dominance of the US dollar.He has repeatedly described the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, plus expanded members like Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) as an "attack on the dollar" or something "set up to hurt us" by attempting to undermine or replace the dollar's role in global trade and finance. This stems from discussions within BRICS about de-dollarization—reducing reliance on the US dollar through more use of national currencies, alternative payment systems, or even exploring a common BRICS currency.Key examples from Trump's statements (primarily via Truth Social posts and public remarks in 2024–2025):

• He has called BRICS an "attack on the dollar" and claimed it was designed to "degenerate our dollar and take our dollar" or "hurt the United States."
• In multiple instances, he warned that BRICS efforts to create or back alternatives to the dollar would face severe consequences, including threats of 100% tariffs on goods from member countries if they pursue such paths.
• He asserted there is "no chance" BRICS will replace the dollar and that any country trying should "say hello to Tariffs, and goodbye to America."
• Trump has claimed his tariff threats caused nations to "drop out" of BRICS or abandon talks about replacing the dollar, positioning himself as strongly protective of dollar dominance.

These views tie into his broader "America First" approach, using tariffs as leverage against perceived challenges to US economic supremacy. Note that while Trump sees BRICS as a threat in this context, many analysts (including from think tanks like the Atlantic Council and Peterson Institute) argue the dollar remains securely dominant in the near to medium term, with de-dollarization efforts progressing slowly and facing major hurdles due to the dollar's entrenched role in global reserves, trade, and finance. As a Norwegian pensioner in Brazil (a BRICS founding member), you might notice this tension in local economic discussions, though Brazil has often emphasized multilateralism without fully endorsing aggressive de-dollarization. The situation remains fluid amid ongoing US-Brazil trade dynamics.