By Guardian - Frances Mao/Yohannes Lowe - Tue 30 Dec 2025 16.52 GMT

Move could feasibly allow Russian missiles to reach European targets faster from Belarus, its neighbouring ally that also shares a border with Nato countries Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Russia has released a video declaring its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles have entered active service in Belarus, its neighbouring ally which also shares a border with Nato countries Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

A handout still image taken from video provided on 30 December 2025 by the Russian defence ministry press service shows a unit equipped with the Russian Oreshnik missile system that began combat duty in an undisclosed location in Belarus. Photograph: Russian Defence Ministry Press Service Handout/EPALucy Campbell (now);

13.39 GMT

Russia says it has moved Oreshnik missiles into Belarus

A still from the Russian Defence ministry video purporting to show a unit equipped with the Russian ‘Oreshnik’ mobile ground-based missile system that began combat duty in an undisclosed location in Belarus. Photograph: Russian Defence Ministry Press Service Handout/EPA

Putin has claimed the weapons are impossible to intercept because the missile speeds are supposedly more than 10 times the speed of sound.

The move could feasibly allow Russian nuclear missiles to reach European targets faster, if stored at a base in Belarus. Intermediate missiles have a range of around 5,500km (3,415 missiles) which mean they could strike anywhere in Europe or the US’s west coast from Russia.

The video released by both Russian and Belarus defence ministries on Tuesday didn’t specify where the missile systems are being placed in Belarus- but it showed them being transported into forests and being camouflaged with netting.

“The Oreshnik missile division began performing combat duty tasks in designated areas in the country,” Belarus’s defence ministry said.

The video showed troops putting camouflage and netting over the systems. Photograph: Russian Defence Ministry Press Service Handout/EPA

16.48 GMT

Frances Mao

War analysts note no typical evidence of a Ukrainian strike into Russia regarding alleged Putin residence attack

The Institute for the Study of War has also published some useful insights in assessing if the claimed attack on Putin’s residence actually happened. As we’ve been reporting, Moscow hasn’t shown a shred of evidence for the attack which supposedly involved 89 drones.

“The circumstances of this alleged strike do not conform to the pattern of observed evidence when Ukrainian forces conduct strikes into Russia.” ISW analysts say, noting that confirmed Ukrainian strikes in Russia typically generate evidence observable in open sources.

• Evidence would normally be footage of air defence operations, explosions, fires, or smoke plumes near the target
• A Ukrainian attack often can also be picked up in statements from local Russian officials, typically downplaying successful strikes as “debris” from downed drones
• There are also usually reports in local media of fire or damage to the targets

“ISW has not observed any such footage nor local or regional reporting about Ukrainian strikes near Putin’s residence to corroborate [Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov’s claim,” the analysts say.

They added that the detail about 89 drones being downed over Novgorod oblast was “inconsistent” with the Russian defence ministry’s own tally of 47 Ukrainian drones being downed by their defences on the night of 28 December.

“The Kremlin has offered no evidence to support its claim that Ukrainian forces targeted Putin’s residence on December 29.”

16.38 GMT

Zelenskyy has also told reporters that Ukraine’s allies have been able to verify that the alleged drone attack on Putin’s residence in Valdai was fake.

“Regarding the attack on Valdai, our negotiating team connected with the American team, they went through the details, and we understand that it’s fake. And, of course, our partners can always verify thanks to their technical capabilities that it was fake,” Reuters reports Zelenskyy saying.

Frances Mao - The Guardian