No realistic policy without a realistic picture of the other party. What is US Thinking?

By derimot*no-Larry C. Johnson - August 20, 2025

Is Trump making a poor judgment by trusting Europe to keep Ukraine afloat? Let me emphasize that what you are about to read is superficial and steeped in propaganda, but I believe it captures the widespread misconceptions and attitudes about Russia and Ukraine that drive the narrative in Washington's political and media environment.

I want to share with you an email I received today from a self-proclaimed astute analyst. In my opinion, he is far from being astute, but the thinking expressed in the email reflects the views of many Americans regarding what happened in Washington today (Monday, August 18) , when Trump met with Zelensky and his European pimps.

So let's begin:

While there is every reason to believe that they have a very long way to go before they can make a real deal, and Putin may never agree to end the war, what Trump accomplished today is historic and quite extraordinary. Trump 1 was ridiculed by these same leaders. Today they came to the White House to meet with Trump as their leader. Never in history has there been a meeting like this at the White House. Never has there been such a demonstration of support and coordination on such a critical issue.

Putin was a big loser today. Zelensky and Trump acted like best friends, and the whole group was united. Putin has completely failed to drive a wedge between Trump and Europe. He has failed to take the extra piece of land he thought he could get before negotiations. In 2022, he controlled about 119,000 km². Today it is about 115,500, just 19% of Ukraine, after losing huge numbers of soldiers – whether it is one million, as the whole world believes, or 700,000. It is a huge price to pay for zero gain, at a huge economic cost, while the economy is being destroyed, and even Russia’s finance minister says it is now heading into recession.

The focus on military production has led to a decline in the civilian sector – down 1.9% last quarter – increased bankruptcies, continued high inflation and very high borrowing rates. He now faces the prospect of a united front that would impose oil sanctions and enforce them jointly with India, putting China in a difficult position.

As I said in the introduction, the author of this email lives in an illusory world. First: When Trump gathered the European leaders present in the East Room, along with Zelensky and the representatives of NATO and the EU, he let each one have the floor. Merz of Germany, Macron of France, Starmer of the UK, NATO Secretary General Rutte, and the EU’s von der Leyen all stressed the need for a ceasefire.

Trump rejected them. He knows, as a result of his meeting with Putin on Friday, that this is a non-negotiable point for the Russians. Although the Europeans were polite and showed a certain deference to Trump, they still pushed hard for a ceasefire and crushing sanctions on Russia and its partners.

Neoconservatives and their disciples continue to rely on false assumptions about Putin, about Russia’s military goals, and – as I explained in yesterday’s post – about the Russian economy. Putin and Russia do not measure success in the number of square kilometers taken from Ukraine. Russia’s goals from the start have been the same: demilitarization and denazification.

Despite wishful thinking in the West that Putin will abandon these goals in order to secure a false peace with the West, he is not going to accept any deal that does not achieve them. If he did, I believe he would be removed from power. Many in the West do not understand that there is a significant public opinion in Russia that believes Putin has been too soft and too lenient towards the US and NATO.

What the person who wrote the nonsense I quoted above doesn't understand is that it is the United States—not Russia—that is becoming increasingly isolated in the world. The economic damage resulting from Trump's tariff policy will only be truly felt in September and October, but it has already done damage to American foreign policy by alienating countries like India and Brazil.

Can Europe shoulder the burden of keeping Ukraine afloat, as Trump seems very determined to stop sending free weapons and large sums of money to Ukraine? Take a look at the debt ratio (debt to GDP) of eight NATO countries:

• Greece: 152.5%
• Italy: 137.9%
• France: 114.1%
• Belgium: 106.8%
• Spain: 103.5%
• United Kingdom: 100%
• Portugal: approximately 99%
• Finland: close to 89%

Seven of these eight countries see virtually no GDP growth in 2025 (i.e. 0.3% to 0.6%). Portugal does only slightly better, with a projected growth of 1.5% in 2025. Although Germany does not have as serious a debt problem as the others, the German economy is also barely growing – projected at 0.3% in 2025. Where will these countries find the money to buy expensive weapons from the US to supply to Ukraine? Take out even more loans?

https://sonar21.com/is-trump-making-a-bad-bet-by-counting-on-europe-to-keep-ukraine-afloat/

Larry C. Johnson

The text represents the author's opinion, not necessarily that of www.derimot.no.