As of now Russia's response to the increased Ukrainian attacks has been restrained

By AI-ChatGPT4o-T.Chr. Human Synthesis-03 June 2025

As of now Russia's response to the increased Ukrainian attacks has been restrained. at least in terms of large-scale retaliation directly against NATO or new strategic escalations. Here's a breakdown of likely reasons behind this apparent restraint:

Strategic calculations by Putin

1. Avoiding Direct War with NATO
   Putin likely wants to avoid a direct military confrontation with NATO, which would be catastrophic for Russia. Any large-scale retaliation against NATO members or overt attacks beyond Ukraine would risk triggering Article 5 — NATO's collective defense clause.
2. Internal Political Control Still a Priority
   Maintaining internal stability and the image of control inside Russia might be more important to the Kremlin than risking an escalated war it may not win. Putin has consolidated power further, especially after the 2024 election, and may see time as being on his side strategically.
3. Limited Options for Retaliation
   Russian forces are heavily stretched in Ukraine. Sanctions and losses have hurt its economy and military-industrial capacity. Strategic missile reserves, air power, and long-range precision weapons may be in limited supply. Retaliation might be costly and risk further weakening Russia's position.

What Is Russia Actually Doing?

Though the response may seem muted, Russia is responding in several less overt but still significant ways:

• Intensified missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure (e.g., Kharkiv, Odesa, energy grid).
• Cyber operations and disinformation campaigns have increased in Europe and North America.
• Hybrid warfare tools — sabotage, destabilization efforts in Moldova, the Baltics, and possibly Poland.
• Tactical escalation threats, including vague references to nuclear weapons — used mainly as psychological and political tools.

Why Not a Massive Retaliation Yet?

• Waiting for the U.S. election in November 2025: Putin may be hoping for a change in Washington that could weaken NATO unity or reduce Western support for Ukraine.
• Discipline through fear: Russia may prefer to project power not by immediate large retaliation but by uncertainty — making the West second-guess its moves.
• Testing red lines: Both NATO and Russia are in a dangerous dance, testing how far they can go without triggering a full-scale wider war.
• What Could Change the Situation?
• If Ukraine strikes deeper into Russian territory, especially critical military or political sites, pressure on Putin to retaliate more forcefully will rise.
• A NATO member casualty or base getting hit by Russian forces could spiral into a much larger conflict.
• An internal collapse or major shift in Russian leadership or military conditions might trigger more unpredictable actions.

As of June 3, 2025, Vladimir Putin is alive and continues to serve as President of Russia. He was recently active in diplomatic engagements, notably participating in the second round of peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2, 2025, where he presented Russia's conditions for ending the conflict .reuters.com+1theguardian.com+1

Speculations about Putin's health have been circulating for years, with various reports suggesting he may be suffering from illnesses such as cancer or Parkinson's disease. However, these claims remain unverified, and the Kremlin has consistently denied any serious health issues .thetimes.co.uk

In May 2025, Putin was visibly active during the Moscow Victory Day Parade, hosting foreign dignitaries, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, and participating in official ceremonies . These public appearances indicate that he remains in control of the Russian government and its ongoing military operations.en.wikipedia.org

While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has predicted that Putin "will die soon," such statements appear to be politically motivated and are not supported by concrete evidence .youtube.com+4ndtv.com+4nypost.com+4

In summary, despite ongoing rumors and speculations, there is no credible information to suggest that Vladimir Putin is deceased.

Foreign Special Forces in Ukraine's War Effort

There is credible open-source and intelligence-backed evidence that:

• Western special forces (UK, US, Poland, and France) have been operating in limited and covert roles in or around Ukraine — particularly in training, intelligence sharing, logistics, and possibly deep reconnaissance.
• Some reports (from leaks like the Discord papers) suggest small contingents may have been involved in operations near or inside Russian-controlled territory — but not officially acknowledged.

Important distinction:
These are plausible deniability operations. If NATO forces are involved, they are highly compartmentalized, unofficial, and not under direct NATO command. Their missions likely stop short of open offensive actions on Russian soil.

Ukraine’s Deep Strikes Inside Russia

Ukraine has clearly stepped up direct attacks on Russian territory, including:

• Drone strikes on Moscow, oil refineries, and airfields (including ones used by nuclear-capable bombers).
• Sabotage operations behind enemy lines, such as fires, rail attacks, and explosions.
• Assassinations of collaborators and military officials inside Russian-occupied areas — and possibly within Russia itself.

While many of these are carried out by Ukrainian special units (like the SBU or GUR), there are suspicions of foreign training, intelligence support, and even joint operations.

Assassination of Putin: A Real Objective?

Could Ukraine or its partners attempt to assassinate Putin?
While it is theoretically possible, and many Ukrainians would certainly wish it, here’s the realistic assessment:

High-Risk for Global Escalation:

• Killing Putin could trigger massive retaliation, possibly including tactical nuclear use, or severe escalation against NATO.
• The Kremlin might view such an act as de facto war by the West, even if Ukraine claimed responsibility.

Putin’s Security is Extreme:

• Putin is one of the most heavily guarded leaders in the world.
• He rarely appears in public, changes locations unpredictably, and uses decoys and strict air security.
• The FSO (Federal Protective Service) and GRU (military intelligence) are tasked specifically with pre-empting such threats.
• Historical Precedents:
• Assassination attempts have been suspected or rumored before — notably by Chechen or Islamic extremists — but never confirmed.
• The Soviet and Russian systems are designed to continue authoritarian rule even if the top man falls. Putin’s death wouldn't necessarily end the war.

Likely Future Moves

• Increased sabotage and deep strikes by Ukraine, possibly with Western help, will likely continue, especially on logistical hubs and military assets.
• The risk of escalation remains high, especially if any attacks come too close to Putin himself or strike at symbolic Russian heartlands.

Alleged Assassination Attempt in Kursk

On May 20, 2025, Russian air defense commander Yury Dashkin claimed that President Putin's helicopter was at the "epicenter" of a Ukrainian drone attack in the Kursk region. According to Dashkin, Russian air defenses intercepted the drone before it could reach the president's flight path. This incident has been interpreted by some as a possible assassination attempt on Putin .hindustantimes.com+4indianexpress.com+4m.economictimes.com+4ndtv.com

However, it's important to note that these claims have not been independently verified, and Ukrainian officials have not commented on the incident. Some analysts suggest that such reports may be part of a narrative to portray Putin as being directly involved in the conflict and under personal threat, thereby bolstering domestic support .indianexpress.com

Ukraine's Covert Operations Inside Russia

Beyond this alleged incident, Ukraine has conducted several covert operations deep within Russian territory. Notably, on June 1, 2025, Ukraine executed "Operation Spiderweb," a large-scale drone attack targeting multiple Russian airbases. The operation involved smuggling drones into Russia and launching them from within, resulting in the destruction of over 40 Russian military aircraft .axios.com+7thedailybeast.com+7theguardian.com+7apnews.com+4economictimes.indiatimes.com+4en.wikipedia.org+4

These operations demonstrate Ukraine's increasing capability to conduct long-range and sophisticated attacks, potentially with the support of foreign special forces in planning and execution.

Conclusion

While there is no definitive evidence confirming an assassination attempt on President Putin, the reported drone strike near his helicopter's flight path indicates a significant escalation in Ukraine's offensive capabilities. The broader context of Ukraine's covert operations within Russia underscores a strategic shift in the conflict, with Ukraine demonstrating an ability to strike deep into Russian territory.ndtv.com+1m.economictimes.com+1

For more detailed information, you can refer to the following sources:

• NDTV Report on Alleged Assassination Attempt
• The Guardian's Visual Guide to Operation Spiderweb

WAR REPORT»BREAKING INTEL REPORT | GLOBAL ESCALATION ALERT | “OPERATION SPIDERWEB” – PUTIN ISSUES MILITARY WARNING AFTER UKRAINE STRIKES STRATEGIC BOMBER BASES INSIDE RUSSIA

WAR REPORT

Ukraine launches Operation Spiderweb — a massive drone strike deep inside Russia, destroying strategic bomber bases. Putin declares: “No red line. No peace. They will regret this.” The most dangerous escalation of the war has begun.

THE RED LINE IS GONE
Vladimir Putin broke silence today with a chilling declaration:

“Ukraine attacked our air bases where Russian strategic bombers are located. They proved that there can be no peaceful solution. They have prepared their own end with this action. There is no more red line. They will regret what they did.”

This is not posturing. This is a military doctrine shift, delivered with the cold precision of a head of state preparing for war.

For the first time in this conflict, strategic nuclear platforms were targeted on Russian soil — and the Kremlin now treats this as a game-altering precedent.

Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb” has changed the war. And possibly the world.