By Guardian-Fiona Harvey/Sun 17 Nov 2024 12.56 GMT

Governments meeting to forge a global settlement on climate finance must get over their differences this week and come to a deal – because if talks carry on until next year they stand little chance with Donald Trump in the White House, the German development minister has said.

Jochen Flasbarth, one of the most influential ministers at the UN Cop29 summit, said that if the final days of the summit did not produce a breakthrough countries would face a much tougher prospect. Jochen Flasbarth called on Cop29 delegates to press on as world faces increasing crises and drop in solidarity

“Postponing the decision here to Belém [the city in northern Brazil where next year’s UN climate summit will be held] is not something advisable,” he told the Guardian. “We have an increasing crisis in the world, war in the world, and countries disappearing from global solidarity like the US, and the departure of the Argentinian delegation. These are clear signals that we will get in difficult times.”

Two weeks of talks on climate finance are scheduled to end on Friday, with many developing countries frustrated at what they believed was a lack of progress in the first week of the Cop29 summit in Azerbaijain. Poorer countries want at least $1tn a year to help them cut greenhouse gas emissions and cope with the impacts of extreme weather.

Rich countries have not yet put a figure on how much they will be prepared to contribute. A study last week by leading economists suggested that about $500bn should come from the private sector, and about $250bn from multilateral development banks such as the World Bank.

The direct provision of grants and loans from developed to developing countries needs to roughly double, from about $40bn today, they found. However, higher income countries have not yet agreed to that.

The talks have also been beset by controversy over the influence of fossil fuel companies. Oil and gas make up 90% of Azerbaijan’s exports, and were described by the country’s president, Ilham Aliyev, in the opening ceremony as a “gift of God”. Fossil fuel lobbyists at Cop29 outnumber the delegations of the 10 most vulnerable countries, and have been given “red carpet” treatment.

A group of senior voices on the climate, including a former UN secretary general, a former UN climate chief, and a former UN climate envoy, wrote to the UN last week calling for reforms to the process of Cops – which stands for “conference of the parties” under the 1992 UN framework convention on climate change.

Flasbarth is a respected figure on climate finance, having taken charge previously of the key issue of ensuring that developed countries met their previous target of providing $100bn a year for poorer countries, a target that was supposed to be met in 2020 but was finally met two years late.

Mohamed Adow, the director of the Power Shift Africa thinktank, said: “We need Flasbarth to be working with other developed country ministers to resolve the climate finance stalemate. The world expects a clear signal of the financing of climate action from Baku, and we can’t afford to fail in that task here in Baku because of the fear of a Trump presidency. It’s important we don’t just accept a bad deal here out of fear of the incoming Trump administration.”

Another sticking point for rich countries is ensuring that emerging economies with big carbon footprints, such as China – the world’s biggest emitter and second biggest economy – also contribute to providing help for the poorest.

United Nations • Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. THE TRUTH IS.

China has made pledges to continue to provide “south-south” assistance to poorer countries, which Flasbarth said were “appreciated”. But he also called on the government in Beijing to account for such finances more clearly as it is impossible to evaluate them given how little information China publishes on its activities.

“We believe that this is the point in time to be more transparent about it,” he said. “We don’t have any doubts that they are doing something substantial, but it’s a black box, and there is a desire to better understand what they are doing.”

He said developed countries were already held to high standards on proving they were fulfilling their pledges. China would not need to meet the same standards, he indicated, but should provide more information, perhaps to an external body such as the UN. “There needs to be a neutral place where we are all reporting so that parties can understand what we are doing,” he said. “We are not making a black and white request, we can discuss it.”

“The G77 and China have always requested that the old developed countries should be very transparent about what we are paying, what parts are grants, what parts are loans, how do we count, to whom do we channel aid, what is on mitigation, what is on adaptation,” he said. “We are not requesting something unreasonable.”

Germany is in the midst of a political crisis as the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, faces the potential dissolution of his governing coalition. Flasbarth said he had “no doubt” that the next government, of whatever stripe, would continue to meet the country’s obligations on climate finance, and increase them in future. “I cannot imagine that the future administration would step away from that, or [from] increased commitments,” he said.

Flasbarth was upbeat on the talks, but others have spoken of “frustration” and a “vacuum”. He said: “I’m quite positive that we can reach an agreement here. We are building up something credible.”

He said a Cop focused on finance was always going to be difficult. “Some people are worried because this is economically an issue of distribution, and this is always not easy. But I see some positive signals.”

Climate Summits "No Longer Fit For Purpose", Experts Say

By Tyler Durden - Sunday, Nov 17, 2024 - 10:45 AM

It looks like experts are starting to realize that the litany of global 'climate summits', where participants fly in on private jets to wax poetic about the virtues of attempting to change thousand-year cooling and warming cycles on Earth, could need some reform.

Leading climate experts, including Ban Ki-moon, Mary Robinson, Christiana Figueres, and Johan Rockström, are calling for significant changes to UN climate summits, according to a new report from The Guardian.

They argue future conferences should only be hosted by nations demonstrating strong climate action and advocate for stricter controls on fossil fuel lobbyists. Over 1,700 industry lobbyists attended Cop29, raising concerns about undue influence.  

The group has urged the UN to streamline the annual summits, amplify the voices of developing countries, and increase meeting frequency to better address the climate crisis.

“It is now clear that the Cop is no longer fit for purpose. We need a shift from negotiation to implementation,” they wrote. 

“We need strict eligibility criteria to exclude countries who do not support the phase-out/transition away from fossil energy. Host countries must demonstrate their high level of ambition to uphold the goals of the Paris agreement,” they said. 

Cop29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, is nearing its halfway point amid controversy. Azerbaijan, a major fossil fuel producer with oil and gas comprising half its exports, follows last year’s host, the UAE—a petrostate led by Sultan Al Jaber, who retained his role as head of Adnoc during the conference.

At Cop29 in Baku, controversy surrounds the presence of 1,773 fossil fuel lobbyists, more than any nation except Azerbaijan, Brazil, and Turkey, and far exceeding the 1,033 delegates from the 10 most climate-vulnerable nations.

The Guardian wrote that former U.S. Vice President Al Gore criticized the fossil fuel industry's influence and called for reforms in choosing host countries. Talks center on securing $1 trillion annually by 2030 to help poorer nations address climate challenges, but progress is slow, with disagreements over contributions from developed nations and emerging economies like China.

Campaigners demand polluters pay, while a report suggests innovative funding options, including levies on cryptocurrencies, plastics, and air travel, or a 2% wealth tax, to bridge finance gaps. Negotiations will continue into next week.

Recall, just days ago we wrote about a how a senior COP29 official in Azerbaijan reportedly used his role as heading up the fight on climate change...to secure meetings with potential investors in the country’s oil and gas sectors.

Energy production drives 60% of Azerbaijan's economy. Elnur Soltanov, Azerbaijan’s deputy energy minister and COP29 chief, was covertly recorded discussing investment opportunities in the state-owned SOCAR, according to PJ Media.

"SOCAR Trading is trading oil and gas all over the world, including in Asia. To me, these are the possibilities to explore. But in any case this is something that you need to be talking to SOCAR, and I would be happy to create a contact between yourself and them," he was caught on tape saying. 

He added: "We have a lot of gas fields that are to be developed."

The PJ Media report says that SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company, reportedly responded to a fake investment group, indicating interest in meeting, according to Global Witness.

In the meeting, COP29 head and Azerbaijan's Deputy Energy Minister Elnur Soltanov discussed the event’s goals, stating that COP aims to “solve the climate crisis” by “transitioning away from hydrocarbons.”

Still, he expressed openness to oil and gas investments, pointing to Azerbaijan’s gas expansion plans and new pipeline infrastructure. This marks the second year a petro-state has used its COP presidency to promote fossil fuel interests, raising questions for the UN on oversight.

The Second Trump Administration Will Benefit The Environment

By Tyler Durden/Diana Furchtgott-Roth - Sunday, Nov 17, 2024

At the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Azerbaijan, attendees are full of dire predictions that the world’s climate will worsen under President-elect Trump. But when Trump fulfills his campaign promises to increase U.S. oil and gas production and removes President Biden’s pause on new liquid natural gas exports, global emissions will likely decline rather than rise.

This is because exports of U.S. natural gas generally displace coal, reducing global CO2 emissions. Even Germany, Europe’s largest manufacturer, is using lignite coal (rather than the less-polluting bituminous coal) to deal with shortages of renewables now that it has closed its nuclear power plants and Russian gas is no longer available.

About 3 billion people in emerging economies lack electricity and running water, and cook over wood and dung. Natural gas power plants would reduce particulates from wood and dung and make the air cleaner. Under President Biden, the World Bank does not make loans for fossil fuel power plants.

More U.S. gas for export will lower prices of Russian and Qatari gas, harming countries that are invading Ukraine and tied to Iran. Prices are set based on future production, and even announcements of energy production will weaken America’s enemies.

Natural gas production has lowered U.S. emissions of CO2, which have declined by a billion metric tons over the past 16 years as natural gas has substituted for coal use in the generation of electricity. Over the same period, CO2 emissions in China have risen by 5 billion metric tons.

Between 2022 and 2023 US coal exports to Europe increased by 22% compared with the prior year. Because coal has more emissions than natural gas, it is surprising that Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has not asked for a pause in coal exports, only on natural gas exports.

America’s natural gas exports to Europe have been soaring since 2022, when Russia decreased the flow of natural gas. According to the Energy Information Administration, America exported an average of almost 12 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas in 2023, more than any other country.

Europe is America’s biggest customer, and in a phone call to President-elect Trump, European Union President Ursula von der Leyen suggested that US natural gas could replace Russian gas.

But even if America stopped all use of fossil fuels immediately, global temperatures would only be two-tenths of 1 degree Celsius by the year 2100, according to government models. This is because China, India, Africa, and Latin America are ramping up their use of coal to reach Western standards of living. China is home to large supplies of coal, but little natural gas, and uses its domestic coal supplies for generating electricity to power its global manufacturing capacity.

A second Trump administration will not only encourage production of natural gas but also faster permitting of pipelines and LNG terminals to move the natural gas from the interior of the country to the ports, and into export terminals to be shipped to Europe and Asia.

America’s natural gas production, at over 100 billion cubic feet per day, is greater than pre-pandemic levels, but production is primarily on private lands. It could have been even higher if Biden had not restricted leases on federal land and if pipeline approval were faster.

Trump’s energy plan includes permitting reform, allowing different sources of energy to compete on a level playing field, opening more lands to natural gas development, reversing Biden’s climate agenda, expediting nuclear technology, and protecting the energy grid.

Trump, unlike Biden, will not instruct the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to slow down pipeline and liquid natural gas export terminal construction in the name of a transition to renewables. Nor will Trump instruct the Securities and Exchange Commission to discourage investment in pipelines, or the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to discourage loans for fossil fuel projects.

The more natural gas is exported, the lower are global emissions. With Trump’s changes, natural gas will be able to travel to where it is needed due to faster infrastructure permitting.

As the northern hemisphere moves into its winter season, the need for more energy for warming homes and businesses becomes even more pressing, and natural gas is cleaner than coal. COP29 attendees have no reason to demonize Trump’s energy agenda, which will be a boon to the environment.

Diana Furchtgott-Roth serves as the Director of the Center for Energy, Climate, and Environment and The Herbert and Joyce Morgan Fellow in Energy and Environmental Policy at The Heritage Foundation.