By Guardian - Edward Helmore - Sat 5 Oct 2024 22.24 BST

Florida is expected to get walloped by another hurricane next week, just 10 days after it was hit by Hurricane Helene, which caused widespread storm surge and wind damage before it moved inland to cause devastating flooding.

The latest system, Tropical Storm Milton, formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Forecasters expect the storm to quickly strengthen into a hurricane and rush toward Florida in the next few days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Florida said Milton, which could become a hurricane on Monday, is expected to bring surge and high winds to the recovering west coast and serious flood risks to south and central Florida.

Jamie Rhome, the deputy director of the NHC in Miami, said Milton could develop into a “potentially very impactful hurricane” and hit Florida’s Gulf coast on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Milton is expected to pack maximum sustained winds of 110mph when it makes landfall near St Petersburg and Tampa as a category 2 to category 3 hurricane, Rhome said. Category 3 and above are considered “major” hurricanes.

On Saturday afternoon, Milton was about 220 miles (354km) north/north-east of Veracruz, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 40mph and expected to quickly move east/north-east across the Gulf of Mexico.

“Regardless of where the storm tracks, it’s going to produce a large area of heavy rain and potential flooding,” Rhome said.

“Even if this doesn’t realize a high-end wind core, it will have the potential for significant surge inundation,” Andrew Moore, a meteorologist for Arch Reinsurance, wrote on X.

A major factor in predicting Milton’s increasing strength is that surface sea temperatures, or SST’s, did not cool off after Helene passed over and remain significantly above normal.

“Most of the Gulf is above-average SST still, and the loop current is prominent. Shelf south of Tampa is extremely warm as well. Lots of potential fuel,” wrote Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the hurricane research department at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Separately, the NHC said another storm, already listed as Hurricane Kirk, is generating swells in the Atlantic ocean affecting the east coast of the US but not expected make US landfall, with another storm, Hurricane Leslie, not far behind.

Editors Remarks.

HUMAN-CREATED CLIMATE UNBALANCE

By ChatGPT4o-Human Synthesis-04 Oct. 2024

While cloud seeding and other weather modification practices may offer potential solutions to water resource management and disaster mitigation challenges, their implementation carries inherent risks and uncertainties. The documented instances of unintended consequences, such as severe storms, floods, and extreme temperatures, underscore the need for cautious and responsible use of these technologies.

Over thousands of years, Earth's climate has followed a natural equilibrium, driven by intricate atmospheric, oceanic, and biological processes. However, human activities, particularly in the last century, have begun to interfere with this balance. Practices such as large-scale cloud seeding, deforestation, and industrial emissions have contributed to a destabilization of weather systems. The principles of Chaos Theory, particularly the Butterfly Effect, help illustrate how small, seemingly insignificant changes in a complex system—like a slight atmospheric alteration—can cascade into large, unpredictable shifts in weather patterns.

The Butterfly Effect, named for the idea that a butterfly flapping its wings can set off a chain of events leading to massive changes elsewhere, encapsulates the delicate balance of Earth’s climate system. Human interventions in atmospheric conditions, however well-intentioned, have led to ripple effects that manifest in more extreme and frequent weather events. These disruptions have contributed to the climate’s overall imbalance, further exacerbated by actions like cloud seeding that amplify the forces of chaos within an already fragile system.

As we navigate the complexities of weather modification, it is imperative to prioritize scientific rigor, ethical integrity, and environmental sustainability. Robust research, stringent regulation, and transparent communication are essential pillars for ensuring the safe and responsible deployment of weather modification techniques. If not approached with caution, these interventions could continue to tip the natural systems even further into chaos.

Moreover, we must recognize the interconnectedness of weather systems and the delicate balance of the natural world. Any intervention in atmospheric processes must be guided by a profound respect for the environment and a commitment to protecting the well-being of ecosystems and communities. A failure to understand or respect this balance could result in further pushing climate systems into states of unpredictability, making the future even more uncertain.

The climate system is an intricate network composed of many interconnected elements, each playing a vital role in maintaining the planet’s overall balance. Among these are the horizontal and vertical wind systems, the oceanic currents like the Gulf Stream, and the various effects of solar activity, including normal sunrays and sunspot explosions.

Wind Systems: Horizontal and vertical wind systems work together to distribute heat and moisture around the globe. Horizontal winds, such as the trade winds and jet streams, move air masses across the planet, influencing weather patterns and helping regulate global temperatures. Vertical winds, including updrafts and downdrafts, play a crucial role in the formation of storms, rainfall, and cloud dynamics. These wind systems are deeply interconnected and work in harmony to maintain atmospheric equilibrium.

Ocean Currents: The Gulf Stream is one of the most critical components of the Earth’s climate system. This powerful Atlantic Ocean current transports warm water from the Gulf of Mexico toward Europe, significantly influencing the climate of the North Atlantic region. By moving warm water and distributing heat, the Gulf Stream helps moderate temperatures in coastal regions and drives large-scale oceanic circulation patterns, which in turn impact weather and climate globally.

Solar Activity: Solar radiation, including normal sunrays, is the primary energy source driving Earth’s climate. It influences surface temperatures, ocean currents, and wind systems. However, variations in solar activity, such as sunspot explosions, can also impact climate conditions. Sunspot explosions, or solar flares, can cause temporary increases in solar radiation, affecting the Earth’s magnetosphere and atmospheric conditions. While these solar variations are part of the natural cycle, they interact with other climate systems and can contribute to shifts in weather patterns.

All of these components—wind systems, ocean currents, and solar influences—are tightly coordinated in maintaining a dynamic balance. However, human interventions, including cloud seeding and large-scale environmental disruptions, can interfere with these natural processes, destabilizing the climate system.

By embracing a holistic approach that integrates scientific expertise, ethical principles, and stakeholder engagement, we can harness the potential of weather modification while minimizing risks and maximizing benefits. As Chaos Theory teaches us, small changes can lead to vast consequences. Therefore, we must tread carefully, mindful of the profound responsibility we bear as stewards of our planet’s climate systems. The need for a balance between human intervention and respect for nature’s complexity has never been greater.