Sounding the alarm about the El Niño weather phenomenon: − A new situation
By VG - SILJE LIEN SVEEN - 20 November 2023
The last time El Niño hit, more than 60 million people were affected. This time the weather phenomenon comes on top of sky-high temperature records.
The short version
- The weather phenomenon El Niño, on top of existing climate change, has had serious consequences for people in several places in the world.
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, forest fires, heavy rain and floods.
- Redd Barna is concerned about how the extreme weather will affect children in the affected areas. During the previous El Niño, over six million children were malnourished.
- The phenomenon is expected to peak in the winter months and last until April 2024.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has felt compelled to sound the alarm:
"Extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, forest fires, heavy rain, and floods will intensify in some regions, with major consequences," says WMO Professor Petteri Taalas.
This spring, meteorologists and climate scientists saw the first signs of El Niño. WMO expects the phenomenon to last until at least April 2024, and the extreme weather has already had fatal consequences. These are just some of them:
- Over 770,000 people have been forced to flee from heavy rains in the Horn of Africa. At least 111 have died, 16 of them children, according to Save the Children.
- The Somali town of Beledweyne is completely underwater. 90 percent of the population here have fled their homes.
- The big city of Rio de Janeiro reached an annual record of 49.1 degrees last week, with an experienced temperature of 59.7 degrees. At a Taylor Swift concert, a 23-year-old woman died, as a result of high temperatures.
- In Indonesia, agriculture is threatened by extreme drought. The country has been hit by several forest fires and toxic air pollution in recent months, according to the climate website Mongabay.
A man tries to save a boy in floods in Mogadishu, Somalia on November 9. Photo: FEISAL OMAR / Reuters / NTB
But what is this weather phenomenon? In short:
- El Niño is a circulation driven partly by the ocean and partly by the atmosphere, which occurs naturally every two to seven years, explains research leader at CICERO Gunnar Myhre.
- Instead of cold water coming up in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, this cold water does not come up and it gets much warmer in the entire Pacific Ocean.
This affects the rainfall patterns affects the rainfall pattern in parts of the world: Some areas experience more drought, while others face extreme rainfall.
- Become vulnerable
El Niño is expected to peak in the period between December and January. Areas in Oceania, Africa, and South America will be affected.
- Many areas of the earth have a regular rainfall pattern. If there are temperatures and large deviations from the normal weather, you become vulnerable, says Myhre.
Man-made climate change has little influence on El Niño, says director at the Nansen Centre, Tore Furevik.
New global heat record for October: - Exceptional temperature anomalies The temperature in the world last month was the highest ever recorded in October, according to EU scientists.
Read alsoTemperature jump in September: - Never seen anything like this September was almost one degree warmer than average, and half a degree warmer than the previous record from 2020.
But: A warmer background climate amplifies the consequences.
- It has never happened before that we have had an El Niño on top of such high man-made temperatures as now. In that sense, it is a new situation that we have not had before. It is man-made climate change that we need to fear, says Furevik.
2023 has already set a record for the highest recorded temperatures in history. Furevik believes the record can be broken in 2024.
- When you look at El Niño from previous years, the heating effect is typically greatest in the second year. When you add climate change on top of this, 2024 will probably be even warmer.
Furevik does not believe that this year's El Niño will be as strong as the previous one, but that El Niño and the temperature records together could have greater consequences.
- The next time there is an El Niño, it will be on top of an even warmer climate.
Fear for the children
The previous El Niño was in 2015 and 2016 and affected over 60 million people in 23 countries, according to Save the Children. Millions of families were forced to leave their homes in search of food, water, or work after the extreme weather destroyed crops and livelihoods.
Six million children became malnourished, three times as many as were malnourished as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
In a statement on 16 November, Save the Children called for urgent national and international assistance for the massive displacement in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia:
"Many of the displaced families forced to move, including thousands of children, are now in critical need of emergency supplies such as food, shelter, clean water and toilets."
- Children are always the most vulnerable in crises like this, said Save the Children's country director for Kenya Yvonne Arunga.
In Kenya, massive rainstorms and floods have displaced around 36,000 and killed 46 people in less than a month. In the capital Nairobi, two boys drowned in separate incidents, where city rivers had flooded settlements.
- Children are more likely to face hunger, become severely malnourished, or develop fatal diseases when they are cut off from nutritious food, safe, sanitation, or health services.
Published: Published: 20.11.23 at 21:53