Ukraine Breakthrough Russia's most difficult defense line. Here is the biggest battle now:

By VG - TOM BYERMOEN - August 29, 2023

For almost three months, the Ukrainians have been trying to break through the Russian defenses in the south of the country. Is this the moment many Ukrainians have been waiting for?

The short version

• Ukrainian soldiers have raised the national flag in the village of Robotyne, Zaporizhzhya County, southern Ukraine, confirming control of the village.
• Russia has responded by sending elite forces to prevent further Ukrainian progress.
• According to a Ukrainian commander, Ukrainian forces have broken through the toughest Russian defense line, which could allow faster progress.
• Before the summer, Ukraine launched a major counter-offensive with the stated aim of breaking through the Russian defense line in the south and reaching the Sea of ​​Azov.
• Tank trenches, mines, and drones have so far prevented significant Ukrainian progress, but the control of Robotyne is seen as a potentially important development in the war.
• Scientists are cautious about predicting what this development might mean.
• Several points to Russian concern and the lack of large operational reserve forces.

Before the war, few people outside of Ukraine had heard of the small village of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhya County, southern Ukraine.

But now Ukrainian soldiers have raised the yellow and blue flag in the center of the bombed-out frontline village - which Ukraine confirmed it controls on Monday night.

At the same time, there are signs of Russian concern: the Russians are now sending elite forces from other parts of the front to stop the Ukrainian advance.

Why is the development in this particular place in Ukraine so important?

Because something big could be about to happen in the war:

- Ukrainian forces believe they have broken through the most difficult Russian defense line in southern Ukraine, and the forces will now be able to advance more quickly, a Ukrainian commander told Reuters at the weekend, adding:

- We don't stop here. I made it clear to my warriors. Our goal is not Robotyne, our goal is the Sea of ​​Azov.

In June, Ukraine's major counter-offensive began to take back land occupied by the Russians.

Expectations were high. Many believed that Ukraine, with new military equipment and tanks sent from the West, and thousands of soldiers trained in NATO countries, could take back a lot of land quickly.

Ukraine's stated goal of the offensive was to break through the Russian defense line in southern Ukraine and reach the Sea of ​​Azov, thus cutting the occupied territories in two.

But the Russians were very well prepared.

They had cleared kilometer upon kilometer of a formidable Russian defense, with mined fields, trenches, and tank ditches. These were further protected by Russian artillery, drones, and attack helicopters.

The massive Russian resistance led to three months of little progress for the Ukrainians throughout the summer. They also lost a great many soldiers in the attempt to break through.

But now the liberation of Robotyne, which is only ten kilometers from where they started in June, is being highlighted as a possible significant development.

Russia has for months defended the village with everything they have. The fierce resistance here has led many to speculate whether the Russian defense south of this village is not as strong.

In the map below you can see where Robotyne is located, north of the Sea of ​​Azov. The black dots are Russian defense works the Ukrainians have to pass through.

First time since World War II

Military analysts VG are waiting to be positive about Ukraine's roads.

- I would call this a partial breakthrough, which we do not yet know to what extent Ukraine will be able to exploit it, says Tor Bukkvoll, chief researcher at the Defense Research Institute to VG.

He points out that Ukraine has succeeded in breaking through the first large field and the first line of trenches. At the same time, there is still a lot left, and there are minefields ahead of them.

- It may be that things go faster for the Ukrainians after this, but it's probably not just a matter of asking. The barriers Russia has built are still good.

Lieutenant-colonel and head teacher at the Defense Staff School, Geir Hågen Karlsen, has the same analysis :

- Even if Ukraine breaks through somewhere, they will go to new defensive positions. There they will be exposed to counterattacks by helicopters, drones, and artillery, he tells VG.

He then adds :

- What the Ukrainians are now trying to do, to break through such a defense line, no army in the West has done against an enemy since the Second World War. It is very difficult, and it is not like countries in the West can teach the Ukrainians this.

He explains how the Ukrainians almost have to walk meter by meter along the battlefield in southern Ukraine.

- Because of the dense minefields, they have to remove mines, meter by meter, at night, so that Russian drones cannot find them. It obviously takes an enormous amount of time, he says.

This is the way to the sea

The first obvious target for Ukrainian forces after Robotyne is the town of Tokmak, which is described as an important hub for Russian supply lines.

On maps of the Russian defense works, one sees a carefully planned defense in a ring around the city.

South-west of Tokmak is the larger city of Melitopol, which the Russians took control of early after the full-scale invasion last year.

Both Tokmak and Melitopol are described as central to Russia's grip on southern Ukraine. The battle for these cities is therefore also expected to be very fierce.

What happens now?

Several international analysts are now pointing to signs that Russia is becoming very concerned about the Ukrainian advance. Among other things, the Russians are said to have now sent reinforcements from other places along the front to the area south of Robotyne.

The Institute for the Study of War also writes that Russia now lacks large operational reserve forces to deploy in the fight.

They write that a Ukrainian breakthrough could be difficult for the Russians to stop quickly, and that progress could create panic among the Russians and make the Ukrainians' opportunity even greater.

The defense experts VG spoke to are cautious about predicting what the latest development means.

- The maximum Ukraine can achieve before the autumn rains start is to reach the Sea of ​​Azov. If they succeed, they will be at the port city of Melitopol, thus cutting the road between Russia and Crimea. If the Ukrainians can do it, it will be big and beyond expectations, says Tor Bukkvoll to VG.

Geir Hågen Karlsen doubts that the Ukrainians will be able to reach the Sea of ​​Azov this year, despite recent progress.

- I wouldn't put my money on them reaching the sea this autumn, but it is extremely difficult to predict. We simply know too little about what the Russians and Ukrainians have in terms of reserve units. It is impossible to say what will happen, he says and concludes:

- Having said that: We have had quite a few surprises in this war so far.

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