By Dagbladet - Mats Mørk - Sunday 13 August 2023 - 21:57

The Kremlin has cut off the flow of money to Wagner, according to new intelligence. That could mean the hook on the door for the mercenary group, says a Norwegian military expert.

The whole world seemed to hold its breath when Yevgeny Prigozhin ordered his mercenaries to march on Moscow on 24 June.

The mutiny was to prove short-lived, but the Wagner chief's rebellion was undoubtedly one of the most direct and biggest challenges Vladimir Putin's regime has experienced.

The advance on the Russian capital stopped as suddenly as it began, after the mercenary group allegedly agreed to move to Belarus, in exchange for not being punished by the Russian state.

Secret Agreement: - Create a monster

Since then, it has been unclear who now controls Wagner, and the group's future has been very uncertain.

Now the group may have lost its financial support from the Kremlin, according to intelligence from the British Ministry of Defence.

It could mark the beginning of the end for the mercenary group, Arne Bård Dalhaug believes.

- It is conceivable that this is the end of the Wagner Group as we know them. But that does not mean that it will necessarily be the end of the activity they are engaged in, he tells Dagbladet.

- Loses his best strengths

Ultimately, the Wagner soldiers care about one thing: Money. And if they no longer get paid, the mercenary group will probably collapse, according to the retired lieutenant general.

- If Putin wants to liquidate the Wagner Group and undermine Prigozhin's power base, then it can be as simple as simply stopping paying them. Then there will be no reason for them to be in Russia.

This may mean that the group's warfare in Ukraine may also be over for good, believes Russia expert Tormod Heier at the Norwegian Defense Academy.

- It is possible that Wagner will not return to Ukraine if they are not paid. Then Russia will lose one of its most effective fighting forces. It would be a disadvantage to integrate the Wagner soldiers into the regular forces, because then they would be subject to a highly dysfunctional Russian command system, thus losing the independence that has made them so effective.

- Want to see a more paranoid Putin

He believes the Kremlin probably still disagrees about the group's future.

- This is another expression of a deeper problem in the Kremlin and shows that there may be some disagreement between Putin and Shoigu. If Shoigu had gained more control over Wagner, his position would have been strengthened, while Putin wants to keep the group as it is, but with a more loyal leader than Prigozhin.

It is possible that Russia will try to create new mercenary groups, and then recruit as many former Wagner soldiers as possible, Heier explains to Dagbladet.

- Will return to Africa

Before the invasion of Ukraine, the Wagner group was probably unknown to most people, but Prigozhin's mercenaries have long fought for a number of dictators and authoritarian regimes across several continents.

This has made the Russian oligarch and his subjects a sovereign state, says Dalhaug.

- In the old days, the group was self-financed and earned large sums from its operations in Africa and the Middle East. This made Prigozhin and the other leaders of Wagner very rich.

But after Russia's invasion, the group's focus has primarily been on the neighboring country.

- After Wagner started the war in Ukraine, and ended almost all the missions in Africa, they have had no other source of income than the Russian state, says Dalhaug.

Now the group may be forced to return to the continent, he says.

- They will probably try to return to the continent, now that the Russians have stopped paying them. During the summit between Russia and several African countries a couple of weeks ago, Prigozhin acted as if he was Russia's man in Africa, so it would be a logical way for them to go.

- Sought

The group will probably find more than enough work there, as the group's brutal methods are highly sought after, according to Dalhaug.

- It will probably not be very difficult for Wagner to start up again in Africa, and several of African leaders have requested their services.

- It is also possible that individual soldiers and smaller groups will join other private military groups in Africa because Wagner is not the only one. These are soldiers and leaders with a lot of war experience, so they will easily find a new job.

But the Kremlin may try to take over the group's warfare in Africa, in the same way that they took over for Wagner in Bakhmut, says Heier.

- There are also rumors that Defense Minister Sjoigu wants greater control over Wagner's operations in Africa, which will mean that large parts of the group's income will disappear.

This income has also come in the form of access to valuable natural resources, including by giving them licenses for mining, explains the Russia expert.

- Very powerful

After several years of warfare, the group has become a powerful entity, says Heier.

- Wagner also built up a lot of power, authority, and recognition through his warfare. This has made Putin see Prigozhin as a potential challenger, he says.

But, unless the Kremlin cuts off the head of the snake, the body will probably not die, Heier believes.

- I don't think this will be the end of Wagner, as long as Prigozhin is still around. He was clearly present during the summit in St. Petersburg and met with several African leaders. So he clearly hasn't been gagged by Putin.

- A stillborn project

One scary thought

What if Wagner turned his coat to fight for Biden in Ukraine? Could the US and EU force Zelensky to accept it?