Military Overview of Day 2 of Zelensky’s Long Awaited ‘Offensive’

By INTEL-DROP June 5, 2023

After a series of attacks on the Russian villages in the border Belgorod region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) expectedly began their counter-offensive on the frontlines in the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia regions. Ukrainian troops launched offensive operations simultaneously in different directions. The situation remains tense for the second day in a row.

As it was expected, the main battlefield is the Zaporizhzhia region, where the AFU is trying to break through Russian defense and reach the Sea of Azov. Kyiv likely expects to cut the Russian grouping and disrupt military supplies through Crimea. In case of their success, Ukrainian forces will inevitably attempt to strike the Crimean Bridge from the Zaporizhzhia region.

Ukrainian offensive operations on June 4 led to no significant results. LINK The AFU managed to advance up to 400 kilometers but were later repelled to their positions.

The Russian Ministry of Defence reported:

On 4 June, the enemy made an unsuccessful attempt at a large-scale offensive in South Donetsk's direction. Six mechanized and two tank battalions were deployed on the AFU side. As a result of the active actions by the units of the Vostok Group of Forces, air strikes and artillery inflicted significant losses on the enemy close to Neskuchnoye (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Novodarovka (Zaporizhzhia region). The enemy losses were 300 Ukrainian servicemen, 16 tanks, 26 armored fighting vehicles, and 14 motor vehicles. The enemy hasn’t achieved its goals.

The 31st Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine alone, which attacked Russian positions near the settlement of Neskuchnoye, lost more than 250 servicemen, 16 tanks, 24 armored fighting vehicles, including three Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Five Ukrainian servicemen were captured.

Russian helicopters struck the AFU with anti-aircraft missiles in the Zaporizhzhia region on June 4. This video alone confirms destruction or damage to at least 9 armored vehicles.

After the failure, the AFU attempted new offensives on June 5, which involved larger forces.

The main direction of the Ukrainian offensive is the border between the Zaporizhzhia region and the DPR. More Ukrainian reinforcements are being transferred from the Dnepropetrovsk region to the Zaporizhzhia front lines.

Destruction of Ukrainian sabotage group in the Zaporizhzhia region>

The AFU again attacked Russian positions near Novodarovka, Rovnopol, Neskuchnoe, and Novodonetskoe.

By noon, Russian units reportedly repelled the attack of six tanks and infantry vehicles near Novodarovka. The AFU is also yet to break through Russian defenses near Rovnopol. Accumulation of Ukrainian reinforcements was reported in the area. According to preliminary reports, the Ukrainian attack on Neskuchnoe was also repelled. The village remains under Russian control.

The main direction of the Ukrainian offensive is the village of Novodonetskoe. The settlement was reportedly attacked by a column of 30 armored vehicles, including Kirpi and MaxxPro. According to the latest reports from the front lines, Ukrainian forces managed to enter the village and gain a stronghold on its northern outskirts. The battle for the settlement is ongoing. A column of about 20 armored vehicles was reportedly sent from Bolshaya Novoselka towards Novodonetskoe to reinforce the Ukrainian grouping.

According to preliminary reports, German Leopard main battle tanks took part in the battles in the area. However, such claims are yet to be confirmed.

The AFU attempted to find any soft spots in the Russian defense, looking for opportunities. The village of Novodonetskoe risk to become one. The tactical success of the AFU may turn into a strategic one if the Ukrainian military destroys Russian defense and gains room for operations.

Russian aircraft in action in the Zaporizhzhia region on June 4:

The village of Novodonetsk is the easiest target for the AFU because it is located in the steppes, where the other villages are not so close as it is the case in the area south of Velikaya Novoselka. On the other hand, this is an advantage for Russian aviation which could easily target Ukrainian forces there.

If the AFU manage to take control of Novodonetskoe, they should be expected to cut the road between Staromlinovka and Kremenchik. Threatening Staromlinovka, they could force the Russian military to retreat from the settlements south of Velikaya Novoselka.

French AMX-10RC destroyed in the Zaporizhzhia region

Abandoned US-made MaxxPro vehicles:

Meanwhile, the situation remains tense in the area of Ugledar, where the AFU also failed to achieve any strategic success the day before. On June 5, their attempts to break through Russian defenses resumed. Russian artillery and aviation prevent them from any advance.

According to preliminary reports from the front. losses of the AFU included up to 80 servicemen, 6 tanks and 9 armoured vehicles. To the 5 prisoners captured yesterday, another Ukrainian squad reportedly surrendered on the front line near Ugledar.

The escalation was also reported in the Kherson region, where artillery fire on Russian military positions intensified in recent days. This could be a sign of the upcoming attempts of the AFU to cross the river and attack the eastern bank.

Destruction of Ukrainian hideout on the islands in the Kherson region:

A large grouping of the AFU was concentrated in the area of the Kakhovka water reservoir, where the AFU may soon launch another offensive on the town of Vasilievka in an attempt to advance towards Melitopol and attack the city of Energodar.

At the same time, the area near Orekhov, where the AFU had previously launched combat reconnaissance operations, remains suspiciously calm and may become the direction of the main strike of the entire counteroffensive, while the ongoing operations in other areas could be aimed to distract the Russian military.

In the case of success on the front lines near Valikaya Novoselka and Ugledar, the AFU may advance in three strategically important directions. They may go to the east and attack Volnovakha and attempt to cut the road between Donetsk and Mariupol; they may target the city of Mariupol to take back the fortress of Azov Nazis and declare a great victor, but such a plan seems to be too ambitious for the AFU; another direction of their attack may be the city of Bardyansk which would also provide Kyiv with access to the Sea of Azov.

However, Kyiv is yet to achieve any victories. That’s why it is ardently hiding information from the front lines. The AFU officials deny that there are offensive operations, claiming that the Russians are allegedly spreading fake videos filmed in other areas. Kyiv has learned a lesson from the recent counteroffensive in Bakhmut, which was proudly promoted by Ukrainian officials but did not happen on the battlefield.

Despite Kyiv’s claims, the number of foreign military equipment destroyed and left on the battlefields clearly demonstrates that Ukrainian units equipped and trained by NATO are already being destroyed in the Zeporozhie region. These units were expected to become the main strike power of the long-waited counteroffensive.

Kyiv declared its counteroffensive months ago and the Russian military had enough time to prepare the defense. There is no surprise on the front lines. Ukrainian forces are now suffering heavy losses during the ongoing attempts to break through, and the scale of their attacks is likely to grow.

MORE ON THE TOPIC: