Orbán criticizes Biden and sanctions: - Trump is the hope of peace.-

Orbán criticizes Biden and sanctions: - Trump is the hope of peace

Of resett.no - The editors-14 October 2022 | 18:55

Russia's war against Ukraine is now in its ninth month. Although the Ukrainians' offensive has made great progress in recent weeks, no decisive victory seems to be within reach for either party.

This means that Europe will most likely have to settle for a prolonged war and all its effects on social life, politics, and, not least, the economy, including, not least, continued high prices for food and energy.

Donald Trump claimed earlier this year that Putin would not have attacked Ukraine if he himself was still US president. The claim remains yet another exercise in counterfactual history – but now Trump is getting support.

During a panel debate between Alexander Marguier from Cicero, Holger Friedrich from the Berliner Zeitung, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Tuesday, violations of international law in Ukraine, the energy crisis in Europe, EU sanctions against Russia, and how the war can end were discussed.

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In his report from the debate, Cicero writes that Orbán, as a lawyer, had absolutely no doubt that Russia has violated international law and that Hungary therefore clearly supports Ukraine. However, what worried Orbán as a politician is that Europe has not succeeded in isolating the conflict in Donbas 2014-2022 as it did with Crimea in 2014.

On our own behalf: panel discussion with Viktor Orbán-"Hope for peace is called Donald Trump"

This Tuesday was the start of the series of talks "Storm over Europe - the Ukraine war, the energy crisis and geopolitical challenges" in Berlin's E-Werk. Viktor Orbán, the prime minister of Hungary, answered questions from Cicero editor Alexander Marguier and the publisher of the Berliner Zeitung, Holger Friedrich. They spoke about the violation of international law in Ukraine, the EU sanctions against Russia - and how Orbán sees the war can be ended.

BY Cicero.de - ULRICH THIELE on October 11, 2022

Ulrich Thiele is a member of the Cicero editorial team and lives in Hamburg. He can be found on Twitter as @ul_thi.

Viktor Orbán has been criticized by Western Europe for his Hungary First policy for years – but that he hides his policy behind bubbles and decentralized mobilization rhetoric is not one of the allegations. This was demonstrated once again today, Tuesday, when Hungary's prime minister visited Berlin's E-Werk for a one-hour panel discussion with Alexander Marguier, Cicero's editor-in-chief and publisher, and Holger Friedrich, publisher of the Berliner Zeitung, during his visit to Germany. "Storm over Europe - the Ukraine war, the energy crisis, and geopolitical challenges" is the title of a new series, which started with a discussion with Orbán.

As a lawyer, he has absolutely no doubt that Russia has broken international law, which is why Hungary is clearly on the side of Ukraine, according to Orbán. However, he considers it an "immense problem" that it has not yet been possible to isolate this conflict. He then launched into a eulogy for ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel: He had fought tough conflicts with Merkel on migration policy, but the way the then-Chancellor acted in the Crimea crisis in 2014 was a "diplomatic masterpiece". Because Germany immediately entered into negotiations with Russia and thus isolated the conflict so that it remained a Russian-Ukrainian conflict. "Therefore: Thank you, Angela!" Orbán said.

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In the current war, however, nobody tried to negotiate, which is why the conflict is now international, in the course of which nobody asks what the interests of countries like Hungary are. "I am not willing to help Ukrainians in such a way that I ruin Hungary economically and Hungarians die," Orbán said. There are two camps in Europe: the war camp and the peace camp. "I belong to the peace camp, so I am for an immediate ceasefire - no matter what the Ukrainians think of it. That distinguishes me from those who want to derive decisions from Ukrainian interests.” The moderators wanted to know whether there had been a war with Merkel. Orbán's curt reply: "Definitely."

"When it comes to energy, we're dwarfs"

Orbán's program can be summarized under the motto "Hungary first". Everything else, according to co-moderator Holger Friedrich, he wants to leave on the right and left. But Hungary is part of the EU. Isn't Orbán pursuing a policy to the detriment of the European perspective if, as at the beginning of the war, he entered into negotiations on energy supplies early on, although Brussels had advocated a united European approach to sanctions against Russia?

Orbán stuck to the Hungary First position: there is no European perspective from which national interests can be derived. On the contrary, the European perspective is formed from the bundling of national interests. The sanctions of the EU Commission are "catastrophic". Not the sanctions themselves, but the "primitive way" in which they would be implemented. However, the main argument for the sanctions is quite logical, commented moderator Alexander Marguier: Russia's war is not to be financed. What does Orbán imagine an intelligent sanctions regime that does not harm Germany and Russia? The Hungarian prime minister failed to provide a concrete answer.

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Instead, he explained why the sanctions were primitive: "We didn't want to finance the Russians, but we actually finance them." In six months, Russia had earned 158 billion euros, half of which came from Europe. One should not only consider the quantity of raw materials but also their market prices. "When the prices rise, the Russians sell less gas, but they still make more money." Sanctions are only worthwhile if you are stronger. “When it comes to energy, we are dwarfs, while the Russians are giants. A dwarf sanctions the giant and then wonders why it doesn't work.”

“We would just change masters”

However, according to Russia, it wants to destabilize the West. It is therefore doubtful whether Russia would supply gas again at all if the sanctions were lifted. What makes him so sure that Russia would deliver gas without sanctions, Marguier wanted to know from the Hungarian head of government. "I'm not proposing to lift the sanctions, but to re-carve them," Orbán countered.

Here Orbán singled out Germany's then Chancellor Angela Merkel, who after Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 initiated negotiations with Russia and thus isolated the conflict so that it remained a Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Orbán thanked Merkel and hailed the result as a "diplomatic masterpiece".

Orbán is known as relatively Putin-friendly, but above all, he is known rhetorically and in practice as putting Hungary and national interests first. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Hungary has, albeit reluctantly, largely supported the EU sanctions against Putin and his regime, but with dissent for gas and Patriarch Kirill.

Orbán argued that the war could perhaps have been resolved earlier if more countries had followed Hungary's example and put national interests first. He perceives a lack of emphasis on national interests as the reason why the Ukraine conflict has now become a continental conflict and at the same time carries a possible third world war.

- I am not willing to help Ukrainians in such a way that I destroy Hungary economically and Hungarians die, Orbán said during the panel debate in Berlin. - I belong to the peace camp, so I am in favor of an immediate ceasefire - regardless of what the Ukrainians think about it. That separates me from those who want to make decisions based on Ukrainian interests.

Orbán rejected the objection that Europe's nations have common continental interests, and believes that Brussels' policies are designed based on national interests; national interests cannot be designed on the basis of continental interests.

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Later in the debate, Orbán pointed out an observation that he has made: Before, India and many African countries would have jumped if the US asked them to. But in 2022, they refused to join America's global alliance against Russia. Orbán interprets this as the West is weaker than ever. He gives some of the blame on the sanctions. Orbán does not want to lift the sanctions, but give them an overhaul or redesign them.

The reason is not the goal of the sanctions, but the structure. The EU wanted to hit Russia's financing of the war, but the money still flows into the Kremlin's bank account. Orbán believes this comes from the sanctions' "primitive" structure, which is blind to quantity and ignores price. Although Orbán calls the democratic USA a safer gas supplier than Russia, he notes that Europe is an energy dwarf that only "changes master" from Moscow to Washington, DC. He believes we must have four or five different suppliers to become independent.

During the debate, Orbán called for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. But because it is to a significant extent the United States that supplies Ukraine with military and economic resources, Orbán suggested that a cease-fire, in reality, must take place between the United States and Russia. However, such a solution seems unlikely based on President Joe Biden's harsh outcome against Putin throughout 2022, Orbán said, adding: - Donald Trump is the hope of peace.