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The Norwegian oil fund manager continues to predict bad times

Portrait of oil fund manager Nicolai Tangen. Photo: Håkon Mosvold Larsen / NTB

Document.no - By: Erling Marthinsen December 27, 2021, 16:05

Oil Fund Manager Nicolai Tangen predicts tough years ahead. He expects weaknesses in the financial market and warns of rising inflation and higher interest rates. But fortunately, the Petroleum Fund is thinking about climate.

- The fund has been going up for 25 years. It will not continue like this for the next 25. Now we are in a situation where interest rates are at a record low and the stock market is at a record high. So from here on out it will look different, said Tangen in Politisk kvarter .

Rising inflation will push up interest rates. This will have a negative impact on both the bond market and the stock market.

Tangen thus repeats his predictions from the interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine on Christmas Day.

The Petroleum Fund may decline in value, warns Nicolai Tangen

It will also affect household finances, in a pressured situation where lost jobs and sky-high electricity prices are already being felt on the body.

- I am absolutely sure that the values ​​will go down over a period of time. Everyone who invests knows this. After some good years come some difficult years. You can be aware of that, said Tangen.

One consolation may be that Tangen does not necessarily envisage a long-term decline. But he warns against using history as a template to predict the future.

- We have also not seen that such a decline has lasted long. Historically, the declines have been very short. This may look different in the future, which is why we say that the future will not be like history.

The man who manages large parts of our national heritage assures us that he and his employees are looking for companies to invest in with the right focus on climate and environmental work. But there are few "green projects" to invest in.

- It is true that there are relatively few projects available. There are many who are going in here. There is a lot of competition for this type of investment, and that means that the price is a bit high, and we have to make sure that we get a good return on our investments.

The Petroleum Fund holds 3,000 meetings a year where climate is one of the topics. More than ten meetings per working day, that is.

- We expect the companies to work towards zero emissions in 2050, and we have a clear expectation. We meet the companies often and talk about this.

Although the Petroleum Fund cannot save the world alone, Tangen emphasizes that their goal is to invest responsibly, and always take the climate into account.

- We have so-called expectation documents that tell how the companies should behave, and it also applies to what we think they should do on the climate side.

The result of the strategy, combined with the market and macroeconomic global development, can thus be (figuratively speaking) seven lean years.


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