KM 4 – 51000/29#2
KM4 analysis of crisis management (short version)
Preface: the mission and goal of the Crisis and any crisis management, special
hazards, to identify and to fight, until the normal condition is again reached. A
normal state can so no crisis.Summary of the analysis results
1. Crisis management has in the past (unfortunately, against better institutional knowledge)no adequate instruments for risk analysis and assessment is built. The management reports, in which all decision-relevant information to be taken would have to deal with in the current crisis, until today, only a small portion of the impending danger spectrum. On the Basis of incomplete and inappropriate information in the location images is a risk assessment is in principle not possible. Without properly collected, the risk assessment can be there is no proper and effective action planning to give. The methodological deficit impact of each Transformation on a higher level; the policy had a greatly reduced Chance of the objectively correct decisions to make.
2. The observable effects, and the effects of COVID-19 no sufficient evidencefor this, recognize that it is based on the effects on the health of
the overall company – more than a false alarm is. DUE to the new Virus
likely to any time beyond the normal range degree of risk for the
population (compared to the usual death happened in ENG). It die to Corona, in Essence, the people who, statistically, this year to die, because at the end of your life arrived, and her weakened body to any casual, everyday stress is not more help can (including the approximately 150 currently in circulation virus).
The dangers of Covid-19 was overestimated. (within a quarter of a year worldwide is not more than 250,000 deaths with Covid-19, compared with 1.5 million dead during the influenza wave 2017/18). The danger is obviously not greater than that of many other viruses. We have it all
with a over a longer period unrecognized remaining global false alarm to do. – This analytical result has been reviewed by KM 4 on scientific plausibility and does not contradict in Essence, the RKI data submitted and risk assessments.
3. That the alleged failure remained undetected alarm on for weeks, has a significant reasonthe fact that the existing Framework for Action of the crisis team and the crisis management in a pandemic, appropriate detection instruments are included, which will automatically trigger an Alarm and the immediate termination of the measures would, as soon as a pandemic warning as a false alarm turned out to be, or to refrain is that the collateral damage – and including, in particular, the people live in devastating proportions – bigger to threaten the health and, in particular, the deadly Potential of the considered disease of the mind.
4. The collateral damage is now higher than the recognizable. This Findingthere is no comparison of material damage to persons damage (human life) based! Alone, a comparison of previous deaths from the Virus with death in some cases by the state-decreed protection measures (both without a secure data base) to prove the findings. One of the scientists on the plausibility-checked at-a-glance compilation of health-related collateral damage (incl. Deaths) is below appended.3
5. The (completely disinterested) collateral damage of the corona crisis is now gigantic. Aa large part of this damage is only in the near and distant future will manifest. This can no longer be prevented, only limited.
6. Critical infrastructures are the necessary lifelines of modern Companies. In the case of Critical infrastructures is a result of the protection measures and the current security of supply is no longer as usual, given (so far the gradual reduction in the basic security of supply, for example, in forthcoming stress situations reflected can). The resilience of the highly complex and strongly interdependent
overall system of critical infrastructures is decreased. Our society lives with a higher vulnerability and higher risks of default by vital
Infrastructure. This can have fatal consequences, if the now reduced
resilience level of CRITICAL infrastructure a truly dangerous pandemic, or other threat would occur.
UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, spoke four weeks ago, a fundamental risk. Guterres said (according to a daily news report from 10.4.2020): "The weaknesses and lack of preparation by this pandemic disclosed, give insight into how a of bio-terrorist attack might look like - and [those weaknesses] may increase the Risk.“ According to our analysis is a serious deficiency in ENG, the Lack of
adequate risk analysis and assessment system in crisis situations (see above).
7. The state-ordered protective measures, as well as the diverse socialActivities and initiatives, the original protection measures, the collateral damage effect, but in the meantime, lost all meaning, are largely still in force. It is strongly recommended that you in the short term, it should be to the damage of the population to avert – in particular, unnecessary, additional deaths , and the possibly precarious expectant location in the Critical infrastructures to stabilize.
8. The deficits and failures in crisis management have in consequence to aMediation of non-sound information, and thus a disinformation of the population triggered. (A charge could be: The state has in the corona crisis as one of the greatest fake news-producers proved to be.)
From these findings, as follows:
a) The proportionality of the interference with rights of, for example, citizens is currently not given, sincethe state has been carried out in part, no adequate consideration of the consequences. The constitutional Court calls for an appropriate balance of measures, with negative consequences (PSPP judgment of 5.
b) The management reports of the crisis unit BMI-BMG and the location notices of the Federal government to the countries therefore, from now onoadequate risk analysis and evaluation, an additional Department with meaningful data about the collateral damage included (see, for example, passages in the long version) be freed of superfluous data and information for the risk assessment are not required because they are the Overview more difficult. It metrics would have to be preceded by formed.
c) It is immediately adequate risk analysis and assessment.Otherwise, it could be the state for any damages. Explanations for the better understanding of the interrelationships between these factors in a pandemic.
A severe pandemic is very rare and therefore a great challenge. The competent authorities must, in a crisis situation to cope with, for there is no experience there.
In the Department of KM of the BMI and BBK will be on a regular basis (along with other agencies such as the RKI, in part, the leadership of the co-operation partner) emergency preparedness plans, pandemic plans, and other organizational and legal framework for the combating of pandemics developed. In the past, were created on the scenario of a pandemic, although some studies, rare great Exercises performed and even more rarely, more detailed risk analyses are collected.
But all of these could Work in the current crisis, not much more than a rough frame offer. For a good, smoothly running crisis management is needed, especially for many experience with similar crises and situations for us to Practice and to the continuous improvement of the framework conditions. In the area of the fire and emergency services is that over the years more and more optimized. In the event of a pandemic can be on any Routine to be established and this means that most of the Acting ill-prepared and overwhelmed, and that the crisis management errors become. The starting point of a crisis intervention is the existence of a special danger situation is always.
Establishment of a special risk situation (pandemic)
The establishment of a special risk situation, not necessarily ahead of that damage have already occurred. In the event of a suspected pandemic will make an assessment of any damage made, without the protective measures expected to occur would. This assessment must in the course of a pandemic, continually updated, because first, only a plausible guess. If this plausibility is no longer given, or if a conflicting assessment of plausible appear, or if the extent of damage in a reasonable time, of no extraordinary height, is no special risk situation (anymore).
Protection measures as a separate Hazard – the occurrence of a Multi-hazard situation
Protective measures can not be used preventively because they, too, have the Potential to carry, exceptional damage to produce. In a pandemic, i.e., at least two
dangers, the crisis management in the view, you must have: damage to health due to a disease causative agent, the collateral damage caused by side effects of the protection measures or (special case) a false alarm.Due to this dualism has, in the course of a pandemic, the likelihood of the occurrence of extraordinary damages and the probable amount of loss incurred, for all existing hazards simultaneously continually updated keep. The analysis of data on the infection to happen and the number of deaths enough, by far not. This is a systematic Multi - risk analysis (criteria for Multi-hazard analysis contains the full-length version).
Meaning of collateral damage
One of the key findings from all previous studies, Exercises, and risk analyses is that, in the fight against a pandemic is always collateral damage (as the impact of measures taken5Protection measures), and that the collateral damage of a pandemic, significantly larger than the pathogens achievable damage.A always in purchase to be taken with collateral damage, has the best cost-Benefit ratio, if
it is not greater than is required for achieving a protection objective of at least is required.He then has the maximum worst cost-to-Benefit ratio, if the original warning in front of an unknown Virus in the end as exaggerated or, in extreme cases, even as a false alarm, turns out, because then the total damage of the pandemic solely from the totally free of collateral damage.Perspective, It makes little sense and is a solution don't come any closer, if you only tried the exact stations of the failure of the crisis management meticulously to understand. A remedy will only be possible if there is an active engagement with those systemic effects are, in their overall dynamics in the corona of a crisis to an existential damage of the community, and the state can lead.
The crisis management and the entire state are in a precarious Situation. It can be the exact Look is no reasonable doubt to give•the corona warning was a false alarm,•the crisis management the work of the risk prevention sub-optimally performed and errors made, the a great deal of damage caused, and every day continue to cause (including deaths), where the measures are not deleted and will be.Because of the crisis staff and the entire crisis management system, including the policy, as far as possible the legal, organizational and other framework requirements, accordingly, have acted, seems to be for you initially, however, little occasion to make Changes. Alone in this analysis, a carved-out findings is not sufficient, even if the results are factually correct , and in the interest of the country and its population, a reorientation is urgently needed appears.
A reconciliation of the present analysis with all affected Agencies of the
Ministerial administration would be due to the heterogeneous interests and Responsibility management of the many Involved expected and according to experience a leveling (or Sorting) content lead. A rule-compliant total damage for our country to avoid is , perhaps, possible, currently, appears to be the only means of creative information strategy which is possible in the property location would be a practical way to identify and organize. Actually, now, a new crisis, and a crisis management set up should be found to be the dangers of a Vera automation is referenced to this runaway pandemic crisis management to combat. That would be appropriate. If the Executive this is not out of creates, there would be in a government with separation of powers, in principle, possibilities for correction:a) The legislative power (parliaments of the Federation and the länder) could the legalConditions change and the Executive to encourage (force), the crisis management differently than in the past to operate. The legislature has, in the past few weeks, proved that you in the short term, decisions can.
b) The law could intervene. The constitutional courts of the Federation and the länder have theArrangement of extreme restrictions on fundamental and constitutional rights in Germany by the heads of government due to a perceived extraordinary threat posed by a dangerous Virus for lawfully considered. You have each of the basic complaint, suit, and each resistance of the legality and legitimacy discussed. Previously they did, without a6in-depth plausibility test is carried out. Such is, as I have demonstrated, have, possible, and would the error be exposed.c) could, in Principle, also the large electronic mass media and the nationalKey media is a corrective form. That this is, in fact, not happening, needs two Considerations
provoke: The framework conditions for the media are suboptimal, they make it difficult, obviously, in fact, the originally intended diversity of opinion in our country.
The incurred relative uniformity is based not on opposition opinions and directions (this could, theoretically, indirectly, an easy system destabilising effect), but to established policy directions, in particular on the intentions of governments (this would existing governments indirectly stabilizes and opposite a Opposition shielded, even in the case that a specific government action, e.g., due to a clerical error, against the existential interests of the country is). The media and especially the public Law seems primarily as a Carrier of the as a together prestigious basic positions of the dominant political direction of the population to see.
Overview of the health effects (damage) on the side of the state
had measures and restrictions in the corona crisis 2020
(Stand: 7. May 2020 fin)
Methodological RemarksListed are the risks today of 10 senior experts/scientists of the respective disciplines for plausible, in principle, have been kept are. The selection of experts was conducted randomly, the results may therefore not be representative.Important for the future systematic collection of health-related collateral damage in the pandemic is, at least to specialists in the respective scientific disciplines to consult. Otherwise a realistic total-inventory is not possible.
1. Deaths. Due to the limitations of the clinic availability (andTreatment options) suspended or cancelled operations: when viewed as a whole we had in the year 2018, a total of approximately 17 million fully stationary patients with OPs. The average of 1.4 million patients per month. In March and April were 90% of all of the necessary OPs moved or is not carried out. That means 2.5 million people were a result of the government measures are not supplied. So, 2.5 million patients were treated in March and April 2020, do not operate, although this need would have been. The estimated death rate can't be serious to estimate; conjecture of the experts expect to Pay between 5.000 and up to 125,000 patients, which due to the suspended OPs die be/already died.7b. Due to the limitations of the clinic availability (andTreatment options) suspended or cancelled follow-up treatments of (for example, cancer, stroke, or heart attack) Patients:The negative effects of interrupted supply structures in the case of tumor patients, be it cancer aftercare or interrupted cancer screening programs such as breast cancer, are at Hand, because these measures have their Use in long studies, and on this
Basis have been established.
It is here, too, the annual treatment figures in million amount expected. In
some cases, the availability constraints of the clinics, also in premature Death of patient. A forecast of this Effect is difficult. Experts, the to expressed, went up to several thousand additional deaths, which are already in March and April of 2020 died or are still dying to be.c. In the care of the patient (in ENG a total of 3.5 million people)drops due to of state had restrictions on the level of Care and
quality of care (in nursing care facilities, outpatient care services, as well as in the case of private / inner family-led care). There has been proved the good level of Care in ENG a lot of people from premature Death preserved (this is the reason that there is so much money spent), you will be in the March and April 2020, the forced level of reduction in premature deaths that have triggered.
At 3.5 million patient an additional death rate would of a tenth of a percent, an additional 3,500 Dead make up. If it is more, or less, is the lack of precise estimates is not known.d. increases in the number of suicides (previously AVG. 9,000 per year); reasons for theIncrease of suicides: long-lasting, significant impairment of living conditions for the mentally unstable individuals will be critical of ; but also with numerous suicides as a response to the economic destruction of livelihoods is expected; various occupational groups, the burden of the social and personal changes and personal (With)a responsibility, not to feel ready.e. Additional deaths by heart attack and strokeOver the last years and decades have been integrated concepts are developed, the successful, the morbidity and mortality have influenced and based on the fact that as early as possible (in the course of the disease), as quickly as possible (time to care) and as competently as possible, a supply takes place.
This inter-sectoral/disciplinary chains are in many ways damaged (outpatient care, resource deprivation) and also suffer a maximum of including that caused by
one-sided and exaggerated information policy Affected by unauthorised manner
Corona more than these diseases of fear and warning sign andalso fear with these diseases in the current Corona-fixing in the hospital, it's not good to be dealt with. As a consequence, are currently looking for a lot of Sufferers do not/to late for the doctor on what is in these diseases increased morbidity, impaired Rehabilitation and increased mortality means.82. other damage to health (associated with the suffering of the Affected and highCost-effect for the social security system, the health system and the labour market) a) especially in their contacts reduced between the old and care-dependent people are ofthe measures affected and suffer greatly in many cases among them.
Part of affect the measures taken (border closures, quarantine regulations, no-Contact orders, etc.), the critical outpatient/in-patient care situation, a negative (hence the optimal supply in relation to Corona)b)the need for treatment (heavier) psychoses, neuroses (Anxieties, obsessive-compulsive disorder, ..) due to long-lasting, significant impairment of living conditions for the mentally unstable personalities, States of the disease trigger to be; there are many years of medical treatment and rehabilitation services to compensate for these impairments is necessary, it comes to health-related absences from Work. 1 to 2% of the total German population will experience at least once in the life of a psychosis. If a Disposition or vulnerability, there is an increased Probability that under the conditions of the corona crisis manifested.c) more disputes and bodily injury in consequence of strong Contact boundaries and contact prohibitions; Domestic violence, child abused) widespread communication disorders (by mental effects, s. o., and also, for example,by the forced Wearing of face masks, the Gestures and facial Expressions as means of communication are severely limited (which leads to misunderstandings, mistrust, L)b) (depending on the economic/economic development) loss of Life expectancy. This is likely to be a long-term to a major damage of the crisis.
Since the 50s, has ENG due to positive economic development, a strong increase in life expectancy realized (of the order of 13 to 14 years longer average life time). The permanent increase in the level of prosperity enabled them to include increasingly complicated health and care. In the case of strongly negative economic development and a corresponding reduction in the level of prosperity is developing in the opposite direction: the life expectancy will decrease. (The RKI has proven that high unemployment reduces the life expectancy.) With over 80 million inhabitants, by state protection measures (not by the Virus), a correspondingly high volume of years of life of the population have been destroyed be. Most of the above-mentioned effects have in common that even after the abolition of restrictions on for a very long time will take up these measures and treatments back to Vorniveau run, because all the interlocking limbs functional, the resources
re - (re-)allocated must be and also the trust of the patients restored be must.
Moreover, it can partly contradictory, at first glance, paradoxical reactions, the injury phase is therefore likely to last that much longer than the actual interruption. In the case of a in the future, shortened life expectancy, the damage even in the future.9Because in theory, at least partially, with offsetting effects expected to be – so, at first glance, paradoxical reactions , is more accurate numerical estimates of the expected harmful cases, apart from been. With the above-mentioned Figures are the size dimensions shown.Concluding remarks
There are two major reasons for this is that this information, without the prior consultation of other competent Authorities directly will be shipped:1. There is danger in delay! Through the alleged protection measures are being created every day at the Momentfor more severe damage, material and health to a large number of preventable deaths.
These deaths will be due to the Act of crisis management, triggered and are responsible for as soon as the Knowledge of the in the hereby submitted to analysis of presented issues, there is also the sender of this information, which is part of the crisis management. A remedy is possible only if the existing Knowledge is passed on and taken note of. All the possibilities of upstream Intervention by the sender exhausted.2. In view of the factual finding of the present analysis and the contrastingDecisions of the policy, in the case of damaged outsiders may fear that the dominant protection objective of the national crisis management, not the safety and health of the population, but the credibility and acceptance of government parties and members of the government. From such perceptions,
which are not per se irrational, can in a Cohesion scale community in a
unfavorable dynamic of a grown-up, especially with a rational sequence of decisions by Crisis management and policy – on the Basis of complete analysis – the good can be limited.
200507 evaluation report KM4 a (2).docxPage1 from 83KM 4 – 51000/29#225.
April 2020/ 7. May 2020