Casualties in the Ukraine war

By derimot*no - Larry C. Johnson - July 15, 2025

Some might wonder why it is so important to hide the casualty figures in the Ukraine war. The reason is actually twofold.

Support for the war would quickly erode if people truly understood the magnitude of what was happening. Far more people would begin to question whether negotiations and diplomacy were not a better solution. But as long as the impression is maintained that it is primarily Russians who are being killed, many are willing – albeit reluctantly – to accept that the war continues.

But if the opposite turns out to be the case – that there is in reality a slaughter of Ukrainians taking place, even though the Russian losses are also significant – then I think far more people would question the entire project and its appropriateness.

And this is probably the reality – as it has been ever since the war started. We also published an article on this topic on Derimot some time ago:

We believe this is far closer to the truth than what is being conveyed in our media – and for example by the US Secretary of State, who undoubtedly must know what the situation actually is on the ground. When he claims the opposite, he must know that he is lying, and the purpose can hardly be anything other than to legitimize a continued flow of weapons into this “slaughterhouse.”

Even now – when it is starting to dawn on more and more people that the war is lost – this systematic lie continues, from which only the arms industry seems to profit. And in the media there is hardly a single critical voice that escapes.

Knut Lindtner - Editor

The numbers don't lie – Western propaganda about Russian losses

Over the past week, Western media has been feverishly promoting the narrative that Russia is suffering enormous losses. The statement by Marco Rubio in Kuala Lumpur a few days ago is a typical example:

One hundred thousand since January?

But it's not just Rubio... The Economist comes with a somewhat more sober estimate, but the key word here is estimate :

As of 9 July, our figures suggest that there have been between 900,000 and 1.3 million Russian casualties since the war began, including around 190,000–350,000 deaths. This updates estimates from other sources, which estimated over one million casualties by the end of June. Our figures suggest that around 31,000 Russians may have been killed so far in the summer offensive, which began in earnest on 1 May.

They clearly can’t bear to do basic research. There is a lot of data – it just needs to be analyzed in a simple way. Take social media, for example. In an age of ubiquitous smartphones and social platforms, it is impossible to hide obituaries and photos of funerals and burial grounds.

There are hundreds of photos of Ukrainian funerals and burial grounds with a sea of Ukrainian flags waving over freshly dug graves. In Russia, however, there are far fewer such photos. Some exist, but nothing close to the quantities shown on Ukrainian channels. Here is one example from the cemetery in Khmelnitsky:

https://www.bitchute.com/embed/QjI5j2vZwFbp

Again – there are some videos from Russian cemeteries, but nothing on the scale we see in Ukraine.

Western intelligence analysts have access to satellite imagery and the ability to study cemeteries in both Russia and Ukraine, and compare where the most new graves are being dug. I'm pretty sure I wrote an article about this, with such imagery, but I can't find it. What I discovered, however, when I searched, was this: Western satellites and media actors do nothing to compare this.

The following graph helps explain why. (Note: The graph’s title is misleading.) The graph shows the number of Russian bodies exchanged for Ukrainian ones since the start of the “special military operation”:

In a previous article, I explained the reason for the difference in combat casualties. It boils down to one thing: Russia has an overwhelming advantage in firepower . Let's look at two weapon systems:

Artillery shells:

Russia has a huge advantage, thanks to increased domestic production (3–4.5 million shells annually) and massive import deals (e.g. over 9 million from North Korea since 2023). Ukraine, on the other hand, is completely dependent on Western aid (1.3–2 million annually). NATO’s Secretary General has even publicly admitted that Russia produces more artillery shells in three months than the US and the rest of NATO do in a year.

These production figures are relevant because Russia’s firing rate (10,000–15,000 rounds/day) far exceeds Ukraine’s (2,000–7,000/day), leading to a 5–10:1 difference in some front sections in 2024. By 2025, this has increased to 23:1 in Ukraine’s disfavor. In other words: Ukrainian soldiers are hit more often and die more often – simply because Russia is firing far more shells.

Drones:

Russia has several key advantages in the use of drones, particularly thanks to its larger industrial base, foreign partners (e.g. Iran for Shahed drones, China for components) and commitment to mass production.

Production volume and stocks:

Russia plans to produce 2–4 million drones by 2025 (including 2 million FPV drones and 30,000 long-range or decoy drones), exceeding Ukraine’s target for some types, despite Ukraine aiming for 4.5 million overall.

Russia has ramped up production to 300–500 long-range drones per day. Thanks to Chinese components, Russia has a 3:1 advantage in daily production of certain types. Ukraine produced 2.2 million drones in 2024 (a 900% increase), but Russia has a cumulative stockpile of 1.5–2.5 million active drones.

Massive drone attacks:

Russia routinely carries out large-scale drone strikes – for example, they set a record with 728 drones in one night in July 2025. Overall, Russia went from 2,264 drones in the first half of 2024 to 22,495 in the first half of 2025. This overloads Ukraine's air defenses and destroys vital infrastructure.

Technological adaptation:

Russia is now using fiber-optic cable-guided drones (e.g., Lancet variants), which are resistant to electronic jamming—a former Ukrainian strength. These “low-tech” solutions have proven to be game-changers . Russia has also begun using AI and machine vision in its drones for better target acquisition, although Ukraine still leads in autonomous drone swarms.

Foreign supply lines:

Russia has stable supplies via Iran (thousands of Shahed drones annually) and China (supplying components for 70% of Russian drones), allowing it to avoid sanctions and maintain high usage rates. Ukraine, for its part, relies on Western support and over 200 local companies, but these suffer from unstable financing conditions – despite a 22-fold increase in the production of long-range drones from 2023 to 2024.

Integration and wear strategy:

Russia uses its drone superiority to support infantry, forcing Ukraine to improvise with, for example, motorcycle maneuvering to avoid the drones. In some sectors, Russia has a 10:1 attack advantage , which further amplifies the losses on the Ukrainian side.

There is not a single weapon system where Ukraine has an advantage. Russia also uses two systems that Ukraine does not even have: hypersonic missiles and fighter jets . And before you shout “But Ukraine has planes!”, it must be pointed out that Russia has air superiority – Ukrainian planes are regularly shot down.

And let's not forget: Russia's fleet of bombers and submarines regularly fires missiles at Ukrainian targets – missiles that Ukraine is unable to shoot down .

So whatever losses Ukraine manages to inflict on Russian forces, these are nothing compared to what Ukraine itself loses – due to Russia's overwhelming firepower.

It doesn't appear that Marco Rubio has received that briefing.

https://sonar21.com/by-the-numbers-western-propaganda-on-russian-losses/

By derimot*no - Larry C. Johnson

The text represents the author's opinion, not necessarily that of www.derimot.no.