By VT - Michael Shrimpton -August 6, 2023

Whilst the energies of the UK law enforcement and intelligence communities are concentrated at the moment on finding the evil dognappers of Twiglet, the sweet little miniature dachshund puppy seized from her home in Essex, the Russo-Ukrainian War continues to rage. Even President Putin seems to have given up on calling it a ‘special military operation’. It’s a war, Mr President!

I have been involved in behind-the-scenes efforts to get a peace conference underway in Malta. Sadly however there’s more money in war than peace! Ukrainian and Western obstinacy is also a major problem.

Disappointed with the outcome of the last Russian elections Western governments refuse to accept President Putin’s legitimacy. They see the war as a golden opportunity to force him out and are quite happy to let Ukrainian blood be shed in the process. It has been abundantly clear for some time that neither side can win.

Russia cannot capture Kiev, given NATO backing for Ukraine. Equally, Ukraine cannot capture the Donbas region or the Crimean Peninsula. Russian support for peace is not a sign of weakness. Russian occupation of western Ukraine would be hugely problematic, with endless interference from the German DVD. Sensibly with respect, President Putin appears to have limited Russian territorial ambitions to Crimea and the Donbas.

The Ukrainian offensive

The media build-up to the Ukrainian offensive was almost as big as the military build-up. Expectations were raised to an absurd height, with breathless talk of the Ukrainians breaking through to Crimea and sweeping the Russians before them.

The Wehrmacht General Staff were similarly deluded in 1941, having bought into Albert Einstein’s advice that rising CO2 levels in the 1930s meant rising temperatures, in other words, global warming. Just as the Wehrmacht ended up having their frozen willies dropping off in December 1941, the MSM’s expectations have not been met.

There’s been one small breakthrough, which does not appear to have been exploited. Indeed, it would appear that the Ukrainians have made the same mistake as we did in the Battle of Cambrai, in which my partner’s father, a highly decorated war hero, fought. (A cousin, Gunner Willie Robinson, of H Battalion Royal Tank Corps, sadly lost his leg in the attack on Gouzeaucuort on December 1^st, 1917, and was invalided out – it didn’t slow him down much in peacetime, except in three-legged races of course.)

Just as at Cambrai the Ukrainians failed to exploit the breakthrough. As I explained in my latest interview with that nice man Tion von Struckmann (link to be added when available) maneuver warfare with armored formations without command of the air is difficult. Tanks are much easier to destroy from the air when they are out in the open, and the Russian Air Force has some lovely anti-tank kits.

I am aiming to get my column out weekly, but the demands of both the day job and trying to settle the war mean that my plans are being torn up on almost a daily basis. Please bear with me! In the meantime all contributions are gratefully received- they make my life a lot easier.

SOURCE - Michael Shrimpton

            Michael Shrimpton

Michael Shrimpton was a barrister from his call to the Bar in London in 1983 until being disbarred in 2019 over a fraudulently obtained conviction. He is a specialist in National Security and Constitutional Law, Strategic Intelligence and Counter-terrorism. He is a former Adjunct Professor of Intelligence Studies at the American Military University.